Here’s how the Associated Press names the election winners

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WASHINGTON — One question will be asked again and again on election night: Who won?

The Associated Press will answer that question for nearly 5,000 contested races across the United States and up and down the ballot, from presidential and statewide ballot measures to a variety of local offices.

The AP has compiled vote results and declared winners in elections for more than 170 years, filling what could otherwise be a critical information gap of up to a month between Election Day and the official certification of results.

What goes into determining the winners? A careful and thorough analysis of the latest available vote counts and a variety of other election data with the ultimate goal of answering this question: Is there any circumstance in which the trailing candidate can catch up? If the answer is no, then the leading candidate has won.

Analyzing the vote

Race calls are based on provable facts, primarily from the AP vote count, which is compiled from state and local election offices across the nation.

As more and more ballots are tabulated starting on election night, AP will monitor the vote received at the county level and analyze who is leading and from which areas the votes are coming.

At the same time, AP is trying to determine during the night how many ballots are uncounted and from which areas. State and local election officials do not immediately know until election night exactly how many ballots were cast in each contest. Determining how many are left has become more complicated because of the growing number of mail-in ballots that could arrive after Election Day, which is Nov. 5 this year.

This means that there are usually no official and accurate accounts of outstanding votes to rely on once the counting of votes begins. As a result, AP estimates voter turnout in each race based on several factors and uses that estimate to track how much of the vote has been counted and how much remains.

The AP is also trying to determine how the ballots counted so far have been cast and the types of votes — such as mail-in or in-person ballots on Election Day — that remain.

That’s because the method a voter chooses often speaks to who they voted for. Since the issue of mail-in voting became highly politicized in the 2020 election, the majority of mail-in votes nationwide were cast by Democratic voters, while the majority of in-person votes on Election Day were cast by Republicans.

In many states, you may know which votes will be counted first from past elections or from plans announced by election officials. In some others, the votes counted so far are clearly marked by type.

This helps determine whether an early lead is expected to shrink or grow. For example, if a state counts in-person votes first on Election Day, followed by mail-in ballots, that suggests an early Republican lead in the vote count may narrow as more mail-in ballots are tabulated. But if the reverse is true and mail-in ballots are counted first, an early lead by Republicans could be the first sign of a comfortable victory.

At least 1,000 protesters gather in Daley Plaza before marching through the Loop to demand that every vote be counted in the general election Wednesday night, Nov. 4, 2020. A full day after Election Day, neither candidate has endorsed the 270 votes needed by the Electoral College. to win the White House as President Donald Trump's campaign filed lawsuits and tried to stop vote counting in several states. | Ashlee Rezin Garcia/Sun-Times — Protesters gather in Daley Plaza on Wednesday, November 4, 2020, before marching through the Loop to demand that every vote be counted in the presidential election. With so many ballots uncounted the day after the election and counting later in the week in several key states, the Associated Press didn’t declare a winner in the presidential race until days later.

Finding clues in electoral data

AP’s analysis to determine winners is also heavily informed by other election data, particularly long-term voting trends in a given area. Past election results over time show that states and counties with a long history of lopsided Republican or Democratic victories tend to continue the same voting patterns from election to election.

Even in closely contested races, comparing current voting patterns to past races can provide important clues.

For example, if a Democratic candidate performs several percentage points better in all counties that reported votes in a state that a Democrat previously won by a narrow margin, that could be a sign of a more comfortable Democratic victory . But if the Republican does a few percentage points better, that could indicate an extremely close race or even a flip.

Large shifts in an area’s voting patterns that differ substantially from statewide trends are certainly possible, but tend to take root over a multiple-election time frame. This helps analysts understand whether a candidate’s lead is an expected result or a sign of a close race. It also helps determine whether uncounted ballots are from areas that could benefit one candidate over another.

Demographic data can also shed light on vote counting. For example, changes that differ from statewide patterns could be explained by a change among a particular group, such as Hispanic voters or white voters without college degrees.

Leveraging AP VoteCast

Another tool available to AP decision teams is AP VoteCast, a comprehensive, 50-state election survey that provides a detailed picture of who voted in the election and what was on their minds when they voted. Data from AP VoteCast makes it possible, in some cases, to call uncompetitive or less competitive races as polls close or shortly after votes are initially released.

When poll close calls are considered, the AP will declare a winner only if the AP VoteCast data confirms the expected result in that contest based on past voting history and other pre-election data.

When does AP call a race?

In almost all cases, races can be called long before 100% of the votes have been counted. AP’s team of journalists and election analysts will call a race as soon as a clear winner can be determined. This may seem obvious, but it is the guiding principle that drives the organization’s race calling process.

AP calls are not predictions and are not based on speculation. These are statements based on an analysis of voting results and other election data that a candidate has emerged as the winner and that no other candidate in the race will be able to overtake the winner once all the votes have been counted.

Why might AP not declare a winner?

AP may delay the designation of a winner if the voting results are against the expected outcome of the contest, as indicated by available election data. In other words, if the voting results show a large lead for a candidate, but a combination of past voting history, demographics or AP VoteCast data indicates a different result, the AP would scrutinize the voting results before making any decisions.

In competitive races, AP analysts may have to wait until additional ballots are counted or confirm specific information about how many ballots remain to be counted.

The AP may declare a race “too close to call” if a race is so close that there is no clear winner even after all ballots have been counted, excluding provisional and late ballots .

Competitive races where votes are actively tabulated — for example, in states that count large numbers of voters after election night — could be considered “too early to call.” The designation “too close to call” is not used for these types of races.

The AP may also decide not to call a race if the margin between the top two candidates is less than 0.5 percentage points, unless it determines that the margin is large enough that it cannot change in a recount .

Things that don’t affect a call

AP calls are never made based on campaign or political party lobbying or announcements made by other news organizations or candidates’ victory speeches. While he will never name a winner based on a concession speech, in some cases a concession is the final piece of the puzzle in confirming that there will be no recount in a close race.