Is Eli Crane’s seat “up for grabs”? Election observers are changing their predictions

As Election Day approaches, Democrats and some election watchers are predicting that one of Arizona’s congressional races may be closer than expected.

Just weeks before the Nov. 5 election and with early voting already underway, several election analysis firms began predicting Democrats gaining ground in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, home to Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz. . faces a challenge from former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.

The district has long been considered a shoo-in for Republicans. Then, in quick succession, nonpartisan handicappers, the Cook Political Report, Internal Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all changed the district from their safest category to “probably” Republican.

This has added some intrigue to the race in its final weeks, although analysts are wary of overstating their ratings.

“I think Eli Crane still has an excellent chance to win,” said Kyle Kondik with Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “It’s just that there’s more activity and interest there than your average safe Republican or Democrat seat.”

Democrats point to the swing in ratings and a recent poll as evidence that the seat is up for grabs.

However, despite the growing buzz, a Democratic victory would be a long shot.

“Crane is still the big favorite here. It’s not a debate race,” said Erin Covey with the Cook Political Report. “But I think this has turned into a race worth watching.”

Signs that a Nez victory is unlikely

If National Democrats believe the seat is flippable, it is not reflected in their party’s campaign finances. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is focused on securing a Democratic majority in the US House, has not invested any resources in the race.

In Arizona’s highly competitive 1st and 6th congressional districts, by comparison, the DCCC spent millions.

Additionally, the base makeup of the district heavily favors the GOP. About 39 percent of active voters in the district are Republicans, 30 percent are Democrats and 31 percent are unaffiliated with a political party, according to the Arizona Secretary of State. That makes it more Republican-leaning than the state overall and safe territory for the GOP.

Jacob Rubashkin of the analysis group Inside Elections said that by his calculations, no Democrat has won the district in a statewide race since at least 2016. Most of the time, the Republican margin of victory has was a high digit or low double digits.

Former President Donald Trump, for example, carried the district against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a 10-point margin, Rubashkin said.

“Politically, he has a long history of voting for Republicans at all levels of the ballot,” he said.

That’s part of the reason why in 2022 Crane, then a political newcomer, was able to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom O’Halleran, an established Democrat who held the seat for years. Both parties spent millions of dollars on the race in a redrawn district, but O’Halleran lost by eight points.

The idea that Nez could beat O’Halleran without the financial support of national Democrats or the advantage of the occupation strains some of the most reliable rules of politics.

Crane himself said he is not concerned about the ratings change.

“I’m not exactly worried about it. We have a very good team,” Crane said in an interview at a Trump campaign event in October.

He declined to share his team’s internal polling, but said “it’s a lot better than some of the stuff I’ve seen floating around the internet.”

Demani points to other hopeful signs

Democrats, however, pointed to the ratings as a sign the seat is up for grabs.

There are some promising signs for Nez. First, he was a strong fundraiser. He raised about $4 million in total: not as much as Crane’s $7 million, but more than might be expected in a Republican stronghold.

That allowed Nez to outbid Crane in television commercials, Covey said, while Crane began buying television much more recently. Covey said Nez may have caught Crane “off guard.”

Nez supporters touted a recent poll by Noble Predictive Insights in early October. The poll of 414 likely voters found the race tied, with both candidates receiving 42 percent support. Another 15% of voters are undecided.

There are reasons to take the poll with a grain of salt: It goes against the district’s historic voting patterns and included responses gathered through online polls, which some consider less reliable than telephone polls. But the poll had a huge impact as one of the few publicly available indicators of where the race is headed.

For Kondik, the results showed Crane has “growth potential.”

“To the extent that there are undecideds, you would expect them to break more with the Republicans,” he said.

Does Nez have a path to victory?

James Gravitt, Nez’s campaign manager, said the Democrats’ path to victory in the district is two-pronged: rallying Native American voters and convincing new rural voters to choose Nez over Crane.

Nez’s support among native voters is not universal. He lost his bid for re-election as president of the Navajo Nation in 2022 and continues to face pushback from Republican-aligned tribal leaders. But if elected, he would be the first Native American to represent Arizona in Congress.

Without sharing specifics, Gravitt said Nez’s campaign has excited Native voters. He said their campaign is pushing for historic levels of voter turnout.

“There’s something really special when you give a constituency someone to vote for instead of someone to vote against,” Gravitt said.

“If anyone could flip this seat, it would be someone like Nez,” said Covey, with the Cook Political Report.

However, the strength of the home vote is not enough to win the district. Census data limits the district’s native population to about 20%, and voter turnout rates are relatively low among this group.

Therefore, in order to win, Nez must get support from the rest of the district. Gravitt bets Crane’s scorched earth style in Congress it turned off some voters who don’t think it delivered.

“President Nez has shown himself time and time again to be a man and a candidate of the people he is running to serve,” Gravitt said.

Rubashkin said it was “telling” that many of Nez’s TV ads were apolitical, focusing on grassroots issues like water management. The district’s partisan tilt means Crane will want to keep the race focused on national issues like immigration and crime, while Nez will want to talk about local issues, which could persuade the usually favored GOP voters to separated from their party, he said.

Nez also tried to pair Crane with Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake.

“Lake is losing this district to Gallego, and she’s unpopular … even in a seat that Trump is winning easily at the top of the ticket,” Rubashkin said.

Whether Nez wins or not, his candidacy could have ripple effects on other key Arizona races. Native voters helped deliver Arizona for President Joe Biden in 2020, and that population has once again become a highly sought-after voting block in the ongoing presidential race this year.