The race for control of the Senate is coming down to the wire as spending breaks records

That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania and $280 million in Montana, a population of 1.1 million or less than one-tenth the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most expensive Senate race ever was Democrat John Ossoff’s victory in a Georgia contest that went to a runoff in 2021 and decided control of the Senate, according to data from campaign finance tracker Open Secrets.

Campaign strategists generally say that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is polling ahead of his party’s Senate nominees in Senate battleground states, while Democratic candidates in those states are polling ahead of their presidential nominee, Kamala Harris.

That means there’s a portion of voters who might vote for Trump but don’t support Republicans in Senate races — or who might split tickets with Democratic Senate candidates.

Such ruptures were rare. In Maine in 2020, voters endorsed Democrat Joe Biden for president and re-elected Republican Sen. Susan Collins, for example.

Republican strategists said they expect the party’s major super PACs to spend by Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending their Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive races. but also Nevada and Arizona, where the Republicans are. encouraged by strong early voting numbers.

Republicans are most confident of flipping the seat in Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Tester for a third term. They are also bullish on safe-red Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno is challenging Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for a third term.