Harris-Trump Showdown: In Nation’s Biggest Battleground, New Poll Shows ‘It’s Very, Very Close’

HARRISBURG, Pa. – As Vice President Kamala Harris returned to Pennsylvania on Wednesday for her second trip in three days, three new polls point to an incredibly close race between her and former President Donald Trump in the crucial state of flux with less than a week until Election Day.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, Trump has the support of 47 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania, and Harris at 46 percent. And a CNN poll indicated the race was a hot one, with both major-party nominees at 48 percent support.

Meanwhile, a Monmouth University poll indicated that just under half of registered voters in Pennsylvania say they either definitely will vote or have already voted. VICE and the Democratic presidential candidate (42%) or likely to vote for her (5%).

An identical number will either definitely vote or have already voted for Trump (42%) or are likely to vote for the former president and Republican presidential candidate (5%) in a separate survey question.

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Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris headlines a rally at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and Expo Center in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania on October 30, 2024 (Fox News – Bryan Llenas)

With 19 electoral votes at stake, Pennsylvania is the largest of the seven key battleground states whose slim margins decided President Biden’s The 2020 election victory over Trump that will likely determine who wins the 2024 presidential election.

In Quinnipiac poll – conducted October 24-28 – Trump’s one-point lead is a change from their poll in early October, when Harris held a three-point lead.

In the new poll, Green Party candidate Jill Stein has two percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver is at one percent.

According to the Monmouth poll, when third-party candidates and independents are factored into the results, Trump sits at 47 percent of registered voters. in Pennsylvaniawith Harris at 46% and 4% saying they definitely or probably support another candidate.

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Release from Monmouth University in their new poll they pointed out in the headline that in Pennsylvania “it’s very, very close.”

“The bottom line is that this was an incredibly close race in September, and it remains so today,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, as he compared the results of his new Keystone State poll with the previous poll in Pennsylvania .

Former President Donald Trump, Republican presidential nominee, speaks at a campaign rally at the PPL Center on October 29, 2024 in Allentown, Pennsylvania. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The poll pointed out that Trump “continues to have a significant advantage among white non-college-educated voters — who make up nearly half of Pennsylvania’s electorate,” beating Harris 60%-35% among that group.

However, the poll shows Harris holding a large 58%-37% lead among white college graduates and voters who are black, Hispanic and other races (62% to 25%).

Quinnpiac poll shows widening gender gap.

Men backed Trump 57 percent to 37 percent — up nine points from their previous poll in October — while women backed Harris 55 percent to 39 percent, which was largely unchanged from from the beginning of the month.

“The gender gap is widening as her lead among men grows as what remains a very close race heads into the final stretch,” Quinnipiac University poll analyst Tim Malloy pointed out.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, arrives at a rally at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and Expo Center on October 30, 2024 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

With six days until Election Day, the new polls follow other recent polls that point to an incredibly close contest in the Keystone State. A CBS News poll conducted Oct. 22-28 had both major party candidates tied at 49 percent.

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Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, are the three Rust Belt states that make up the Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall.”

Democrats reliably won all three states for a quarter of a century before Trump captured them in the 2016 election over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to win the White House.

Four years later, in 2020, Biden carried all three states by a slim margin to put them back in the Democratic column and defeat Trump.

Both the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates and their running mates have made repeated stops in the three states this summer and fall.

The vice president on Wednesday, speaking to a large crowd at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex and Expo Center, urged his supporters to “finish this.”

Harris made several stops Sunday in Philadelphia, the state’s largest city. Trump held a campaign event Tuesday in suburban Philadelphia’s Delaware County before holding a rally in Allentown.

“I don’t like to speak too early, but you have to get out and vote because we … we want a big, beautiful number. We are leaders in every swing state. Because normally Republicans, they like to vote at the end, no matter what you say, they like to vote at the end,” Trump said at the Allentown rally.

Trump’s new argument for early voting stands in contrast to years of blaming the practice for what he continues to claim — without evidence — that his loss in the 2020 election was due to “massive voter fraud.”

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Since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic 2024 ticket after the president dropped out of the race in July, Fox News found the vice president had visited Pennsylvania at least 15 times as of Tuesday.

Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are teaming up for the first time on the campaign trail, hours after the vice president named Walz as his running mate on the Democratic ticket, in Philadelphia, Aug. 6, 2024. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

Philadelphia was where Harris first teamed up with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz after announcing him as her running mate. Harris settled in Pittsburgh — the state’s second-largest city — to prepare for her first and only debate with Trump in September in Philadelphia.

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Trump has also visited the state at least 15 times since late July, Fox News found. Trump’s history with Pennsylvania was underscored by an attempt on his life on July 13 in Butler, when a man named Mathew Crooks opened fire on Trump and his supporters. Trump was wounded on the side of the head in the shooting, and two other rally attendees were also injured. Local resident Corey Comperatore died protecting his family during the violence.

Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Trump’s running mate, has visited the state at least 13 times since early August. Walz has visited Pennsylvania at least nine times since August, according to data compiled by Fox News.

Both campaigns spent more than half a billion dollars on ads in Pennsylvania alone, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported last week. Democrats spent more than $294.7 million in Pennsylvania, while Republicans spent $243.6 million in the Keystone State. The funds spent far exceed ad buys in other battleground states, including Michigan, which trails Pennsylvania’s ad spending by a total of $185 million.

AdImpact, a national ad tracking firm, reported that the Trump campaign reserved $5.8 million in ad time to air spots in the final period before Election Day, with the Harris campaign allocating $4.6 million.

When Biden led the Pennsylvania border four years ago, Democrats enjoyed a larger margin of registered voters compared to their Republican counterparts, 4.2 million to 3.5 million. The data shows Democrats had a 685,818 voter registration lead over Republicans during the election that Biden won with 80,555 votes.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump go back and forth during their first and only debate in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The GOP narrowed that lead this year to a margin of 297,824. When comparing registered voters this election year to 2020, Democrats experience a net loss of 257,281 voters, while Republicans have a net gain of 428,537 registered voters.

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More than twice the number of previously registered Democrats switched party affiliation this cycle compared to the number of registered Republicans who left the party. Pennsylvania State Department data shows 54,668 registered Democrats changed their party affiliation, compared to 25,634 Republicans.

Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., greets Bruce Springsteen at a campaign rally with former President Barack Obama supporting Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris, Monday, Oct. 28, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

In addition to being the biggest of the presidential battlegrounds, Pennsylvania is also home to one of the few crucial Senate races that will likely determine whether the GOP regains the chamber majority.

Conformable the monmouth survey, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. holds a slight lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

Both those CNN poll and the Quinnipiac poll had Casey by a three-point margin over McCormick.

Forty percent of those polled said they would definitely vote for Casey, with another 7% saying they would probably vote for the senator. Thirty-six percent said they would definitely vote for McCormick, with 8% saying they would probably vote for the Republican nominee.

Fox News’ Maria Paronic contributed to this report

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