US pushes for definitive ceasefire ahead of election, but doubts progress will be made in Gaza before next US president is known

CNN
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US officials remain doubtful it will result in a final diplomatic push in the Middle East this week in a pause in the battle in Gaza ahead of Tuesday’s US presidential election, according to people familiar with the thinking, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu waits to see who will be the next US president.

Hopes for progress in ending fighting in Lebanon are slightly higher, with the country’s prime minister expressing optimism on Thursday that a deal to end cross-border violence between Israel and Hezbollah could be in its final stages.

“We are doing our best and we are optimistic that in the next few hours or days we will have a ceasefire,” Lebanon’s interim prime minister, Najib Mikati, said in an interview with the Lebanese publication Al Jadeed on Wednesday.

Any progress in lowering temperatures in the region will be considered a win inside the White House. Still, the sense that Netanyahu is waiting out the US campaign season — a long-standing view in the Biden administration — remains strong as top envoys travel to the region to discuss prospects for ending the violence.

CIA Director Bill Burns was in Cairo on Thursday for talks on Gaza and Lebanon, including a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.

At the same time, U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein and White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk are in Israel for talks on hostage and cease-fire issues, along with a discussion on Iran, all centered on the U.S. policy of ” de-escalation supported by deterrence’.

Hopes of a deal to end the fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border were newly boosted by progress in talks over the past few days, and Hochstein was expected to continue talks this week.

But with a slim US election looming, there is little expectation that the final push to end the war in Gaza will result in immediate success.

This makes it likely that the war in Gaza will continue to overshadow the US competition in its final days. On Wednesday night, minutes after Vice President Kamala Harris’ speech in Madison, a few blackouts broke out inside the arena, which was packed with many students from the nearby University of Wisconsin-Madison.

“Cease fire now!” shouted a protester.

“We all want the war in Gaza to end and get the hostages out,” Harris said, adding that he would do “everything in my power” to end the conflict in the Middle East.

As a few protesters echoed through the crowd, she added pointedly: “Everyone has a right to be heard, but I’m speaking now.”

The scene, which has been repeated at Harris rallies throughout her shortened campaign, demonstrates the political liability the Middle East has become for the Democratic candidate.

Harris almost always points to the need for a ceasefire, even if talks to secure it have stalled.

US officials heading to the Middle East this week hope to make one last push toward conflict resolution before the election, but are realistic about the likelihood of major breakthroughs.

In Cairo, Burns was expected to continue discussing a new proposal put forward in recent days by the United States, Israel and Qatar, involving a month-long ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of hostages.

After months of stop-and-go negotiations, US officials remain hopeful that the new proposal can shake up stalled talks, particularly after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

But a number of details are still unresolved, according to people familiar with the talks, including the number and breakdown of hostages and Palestinian prisoners who would be released as part of the deal.

The temporary truce would be shorter than the six-week first phase that was previously mooted before talks broke down, two sources familiar with the talks said. Qatari negotiators, who along with Egypt are the main interlocutors with Hamas, are currently discussing the limited proposal with Hamas, one of the sources said.

And there is continued pessimism that Hamas will agree to any new plan that does not include a permanent ceasefire. Hamas wants “confirmation that there is Israeli approval for any plan presented to them,” said a diplomat familiar with the talks.

Burns was in Doha on Sunday to meet with Israeli Mossad director David Barnea and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in an attempt to revive ceasefire talks after Sinwar’s death, which US officials they argued that it should be a turning point in the war in Gaza. .

In Lebanon, where Israel has waged a major operation against Hezbollah, US officials are hoping to arrange a diplomatic solution to end the violence.

After a conversation with Hochstein on Thursday ahead of his visit to the region, Lebanon’s Mikati said he felt optimistic about a potential Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire to be struck “in the next hours or days.”

Israel and the White House earlier downplayed a reported draft ceasefire proposal to address the Israel-Hezbollah conflict that had circulated in regional media.

“There are many reports and projects in circulation. None reflect the current state of negotiations,” the Israeli prime minister’s office said in a statement to CNN.

The White House offered the same message; National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said the alleged drafts shared online did not reflect the current state of the ceasefire talks.