The suspense over seat-sharing for the Maharashtra elections continues as the nomination deadline draws to a close

Last update:30 Oct 2024, 00:49 IST

The exact number of candidates fielded by each constituent of Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi cannot be reconciled as some parties nominated two candidates in certain seats.

The ruling Mahayuti (above) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi are heading into the Maharashtra assembly elections with massive uncertainty and suspense. (Image: PTI/File)

With the nomination deadline for the Maharashtra assembly elections over, a somewhat blurry picture of the seat-sharing formula between the major parties in the two alliances – Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi – has finally emerged.

But suspense and uncertainty remain as the exact number of candidates fielded by each constituent of the ruling and opposition alliances cannot be reconciled. This is because some parties have given two-candidate nomination forms in certain seats, while there are reports of rebellion from others.

What do the numbers look like?

Tuesday was the last day to submit nomination papers. A total of 7,995 candidates submitted 10,905 nomination papers. Looking at the nomination file, most of the assembly constituencies will have an intense electoral battle.

According to the latest count, the BJP has filed nominations on 152 seats, the Shiv Sena on 81 seats and the NCP on 54 seats – the total comes to 287 seats, and that includes the seats given to smaller parties in the alliance.

In the remaining seat, which is likely to be Mumbai’s Sewri constituency, Mahayuti has not fielded a candidate to show support to MNS leader Bala Nandgaonkar. He is facing Shiv Sena (UBT) MLA Ajay Chowdhary, but the local BJP leader has filed his nomination as an independent.

Meanwhile, for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), there is clarity on a total of 285 seats, which includes eight seats for smaller alliance parties. Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has filed nominations for 96 seats, Congress on 102 and NCP led by Sharad Pawar on 87. As of now, there is no information about the remaining three seats for the alliance, but these nomination dates will be updated by the site- of the Electoral Commission.

What is the matter with Maha Vikas Aghadi?

The opposition MVA jointly announced the seat-sharing deal in a bid to present a united front. The three main parties – Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) – shared their seats among themselves to strengthen their joint position.

Despite reaching this agreement, however, he faced the notable challenge of dual candidature in at least five constituencies – Miraj, Sangola, South Solapur, Pandharpur and Paranda. Both the Congress and the Shiv Sena (UBT) have fielded their candidates in these seats, creating internal competition and raising questions about their cohesion as an alliance.

This last-minute overlap became apparent as candidates filed their nominations, with the Sena (UBT) issuing AB forms to all 96 shortlisted candidates on the last day. Analysts said this revealed unresolved issues that could affect the alliance’s performance, particularly in close contests. They said the lack of a single candidacy in certain regions could dilute the overall strength of the opposition alliance.

In Miraj, Tanaji Satpute of the Sena (UBT) and Mohan Wankhade of the Congress are fighting for a seat. Sangola presents a similar situation, with Sena’s Deepak Aaba Salunkhe (UBT) against Shetkari Kamgar Paksha (Shekap) candidate Babasaheb Deshmukh.

In South Solapur, Congress candidate Dilip Mane and Amar Patil of Sena (UBT) are in the race. Pandharpur is likely to witness a contest between Congress candidate Bhagirath Bhalke against Anil Sawant of NCP (SP), while Paranda has Ranjit Patil of Sena (UBT) against Rahul Mote of NCP (SP).

Each of these seats is crucial, and the presence of dual candidates could potentially split the vote, weakening the projection of a unified front. The MVA’s decision to allocate eight seats to smaller parties adds another level of complexity.

This arrangement is meant to create a broad coalition; however, the five constituencies with dual candidates highlight the challenges in achieving full cohesion. This internal competition suggests a potential weakening of vote consolidation efforts in areas where the alliance planned to present a united front.

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray has gone ahead with a full slate of 96 candidates, demonstrating the party’s commitment to its alliance partners. But these overlapping candidacies worry MVA supporters.

However, the MVA tried to play down these problems, suggesting that last-minute talks can resolve them. But dual candidacies introduce an unexpected element of competition and as the polls approach, her success will depend on her ability to maintain a coherent strategy and overcome these challenges. The alliance’s performance will depend not only on the effectiveness of its campaign, but also on its ability to manage internal differences in these places.

What is the scene of Mahayuti?

Meanwhile, the Mahayuti ruler is facing another kind of turmoil. The three major parties are facing a rebellion in their ranks as those who were denied tickets defied their leadership and filed nominations for the assembly polls.

The BJP, which has fielded the largest number of candidates among the major parties, is struggling to manage the possible damage caused by the rebels in Mumbai as well as other parts of the state. In Mumbai’s Borivali constituency, BJP’s official candidate Sanjay Upadhyay faces a challenge from former party MLA Gopal Shetty.

Denied a ticket to the Lok Sabha as well as the state elections, Shetty filed his nomination as an independent candidate. In Andheri, Swikruti Sharma – wife of ex-cop Pradip Sharma – filed her nomination against Shinde-led Murji Patel, the Sena and sitting MLA Rutuja Latke of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Pradip, who earlier contested from the Vasai seat on Uddhav’s ticket, has shown his continued involvement in regional politics by his wife’s candidature in this election.

Although it was the deadline to submit nominations for the November 20 election to the assembly of 288 member states, candidates’ papers will be examined on Wednesday (October 30). November 4 is the last date for the withdrawal of nominations and after that a clear picture of the number of rebels still left in the fight will emerge.

If the rebels and overlapping candidacies prevail, they will pose a significant challenge to the official candidates and potentially upset the poll arithmetic of the main contenders for power.