Mayawati’s surprise entry into the UP Bypoll ring – A strategy to checkmate Akhilesh’s ‘PDA’ board?

An interesting scenario is unfolding in Uttar Pradesh (UP) as Mayawati leads the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to contest all the nine assembly seats in the next by-polls on November 13.

After an unusually soft turnout in the April-June 2024 Lok Sabha (LS) elections, her sudden electoral activism surprised everyone.

It is widely believed that her reluctance to actively contest the LS polls led to the historic victory of Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP). SP won 37 seats with 33.59% votes while BSP scored a goal despite earlier winning 10 LS seats in 2019. Curiously, a new Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Ravan, president of the Azad Samaj Party (ASP ), managed to win Nagina LS seat from western UP.

Mayawati’s traditional approach has been to avoid by-polls, focusing on major electoral contests. In 2014, she chose not to contest the assembly by-polls that resulted in the election of 11 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and one Apna Dal Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) to the Lok Sabha.

Similarly, in March 2018, when by-elections were held for the Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha seats vacated by UP CM Yogi Adityanath and Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya, she did not field candidates but supported the SP, which won both.

In May 2018, during the by-polls for the Kairana Lok Sabha and Noorpur assembly seats, following the death of Member of Parliament (MP) Hukum Singh and BJP MLA Lokendra Singh Chauhan, the BSP again chose not to contest.

Also, other moves of Mayawati are equally interesting. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, when her nephew and political heir Akash Anand, the BSP national coordinator, was drawing large crowds and showing promise as a popular leader, Mayawati unexpectedly recalled and removed him from office, saying she needed something more . maturity.

Many believed that his recall diluted the BSP campaign, leaving BSP voters in a state of confusion and uncertainty. Some were even suspicious if he was trying to help the BJP!

It turned out to be just the opposite and the real beneficiary turned out to be Akhilesh Yadav’s SP as many Dalits voted for the SP-Congress candidates. Congress’s Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi sowed suspicion among Dalit voters by suggesting that Modi’s campaign for char-or-paar (a majority of over 400 seats) was designed to “demolish the Constitution of Babasaheb Ambedkar” and abolish reservation.

It was very unusual for Dalits to vote for SP. Earlier, in 2019 LS polls and 2022 assembly elections in UP, Dalit voters including BSP’s core supporters (Jatavs) turned to BJP in large numbers. This was evident when the BJP won all seven assembly seats in the so-called Dalit capital of UP – Agra, a feat not replicated since the first general election in 1951-52 when the Congress won all the seats .

Mayawati’s decision to keep a low profile in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections ultimately benefited Akhilesh Yadav’s SP over the BJP, contrary to initial assessments. Perhaps eyeing the upcoming UP polls as a chance to fix this, she can refine her strategy ahead of the 2027 UP Assembly elections.

A change of strategy

But why is Mayawati going all out in the UP polls and reversing her earlier strategy? There could be several reasons.

First, he wants to regain lost ground among the Dalits and reinvigorate the BSP cadre so that Akash Anand can take the party forward and compete with the new rising Dalit star Chandrashekhar Ravan.

Second, it could checkmate SP president Akhilesh Yadav’s new formula of social engineering – ‘PDA’ – and prevent him from further poaching her Dalit constituency.

Third, it could also mean that Mayawati is trying to make the political contest triangular to make it easier for the BJP to comfortably accept Akhilesh Yadav’s challenge.

While Chandrashekhar Ravan may be an emerging Dalit leader, Mayawati probably does not see him as a threat to her heir’s leadership. It remains deeply rooted in the psyche of the Dalit community, especially in Uttar Pradesh. Moreover, her intention may not assist the BJP by creating a triangular contest, although the unintended consequences of her strategy may inadvertently benefit the BJP.

The most likely reason for her strategy could be to counter Akhilesh Yadav and his ‘PDA’ coalition from gaining ground in Uttar Pradesh. She understands that Dalits would become insecure with an SP government in office. She herself suffered that insecurity during the SP rule when Mulayam Singh Yadav was the chief minister and SP elders attacked her in a guest house in Lucknow in 1995.. It was the BJP leaders who ultimately saved his life.

Hence, checking Akhilesh seems to be her main objective. Her strategy to defeat SP in 2024 LS polls influenced Dalit voting behavior but not in the way she intended.

Social dynamics in voting

Traditionally, Dalits had not voted SP because:

(a) In many cases, Dalits and OBCs maintain a conflictual relationship, positioned next to each other in the social hierarchy, with OBCs often considering themselves superior to Dalits.

(b) OBCs are a land owning community, while Dalits usually work in these agricultural lands.

Thus, for both social and economic reasons, there is a lack of cordiality between the two social confessions, making their political reunion problematic.

This is why in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, even when there was a bonhomie between Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav (BSP-SP) and the much-mulated “grandma” came together to form a coalition, BSP members did not vote for SP. As a result, SP was stuck at five LS seats.

This experience should have educated Akhilesh about the ground reality of social relations between OBCs and Dalits. It must also have alerted Mayawati to Dalit anger towards SP. This is why, despite Akhilesh Yadav’s efforts to include Mayawati in the ‘INDIA’ bloc for the 2024 LS polls, she has steadfastly refused to join.

Mayawati’s goals

Going into the polls, Mayawati aims not only to prevent Dalits from moving to SP but also to prevent them from switching to Chandrashekhar Ravan’s new Dalit party. If BSP performs well, SP’s vote share could drop from over 30% to somewhere in the 20s. This scenario could give Akhilesh Yadav sleepless nights over his ‘PDA’ alliance replicating its performance Lok Sabha in polls and beyond.

The BSP’s participation in the by-polls could also have an impact on the SP’s Muslim votes. In the virtual absence of BSP during 2024 LS elections, Muslims had no choice but to polarize against BJP and vote SP-Congress candidates. Typically, the BSP secures about 18% of the Muslim vote in UP.

If BSP fights well, SP may end up losing so many Muslim votes. BSP gave 2/9 tickets to Muslims: Shahnazar from Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar) and Rafatullah from Kunderki (Moradabad).

As Mayawati aggressively approaches the by-elections, the electoral contest is likely to become triangular. This scenario is expected to lead to fragmentation among different social denominations. Dalits may split between BSP and BJP, OBCs may split between SP and BJP, while the Muslim community may split its support between SP and BSP.

A tiny segment of Muslims may also vote for the BJP. BJP gets around 8-9% Muslim votes in UP.

If the BSP has a renewed focus on Bahujan vote consolidates its hitherto appalling dalit constituency is most likely to damage Akhilesh’s ‘PDA’ with adverse electoral consequences for the SP.