Japan could have a new prime minister – again – as Ishiba’s LDP braces for major defeat

TOKYO – Japanese voters uttered a stinging rebuke Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the October 27 general election, with the results reflecting a hung Parliament.

A special session of the Diet must be held within 30 days of the election to elect the Prime Minister, in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution. But whether this will again be Mr. Ishiba, who only took office on Oct. 1, is a big question mark.

What is clear, however, is that the 67-year-old is on very shaky ground after grossly misreading public anger over a slush funds scandal while betting on calling an early election a year before the terms of MPs in the Lower House were to expire.

Final results are not due until October 28, but preliminary results show the LDP-Komeito coalition, which held 279 seats in the dissolved Parliament, will fall short of the 233 seats needed for a majority in the 465-seat Lower House.

According to a report by public broadcaster NHK at 1.30am (12.30am in Singapore), the LDP secured 184 seats and Komeito 22, for a total of 206 seats.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) won 143 seats, with another 87 held by smaller opposition groups and independents. Another 29 seats remained undeclared.

Voter turnout was estimated at about 53.7 percent, according to Kyodo News calculations.

The election results were extremely damning for the LDP, with a string of former cabinet ministers sacked, including former Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari, 75, former Education Minister Hakubun Shimomura, 70, and former Olympic minister Tamayo Marukawa, 53.

Mr. Ishiba, who retained his district seat no. 1 Tottori, said it was obvious that the PDL had not won the forgiveness and understanding of the voters regarding the slush fund scandal. But he added that he was not considering resigning as prime minister.

“It’s a very tough situation and we’re being judged extremely harshly,” he said. “Across the country, the debate has focused on scandal rather than key policy issues of diplomacy, national security and social security.”

The CDP grew in power from the 98 seats it previously held, with secretary-general Junya Ogawa saying it would be a “major turning point in politics” if the LDP-Komeito coalition failed to retain its majority.

“We have to prepare to take on more responsibility than before,” he said.

The prime minister set a simple majority of 233 seats for the LDP-Komeito coalition as the target for the election. The public’s refusal to grant him this mandate would increase the pressure within the PDL for him to resign, given that he was elected party leader in divergent terms.

His main rival in the LDP leadership election, former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, said on Oct. 27 after retaining his Nara District No. 2 seat: “My feeling about wanting to lead the nation one day is unchanged.” .

He will also have to fight tooth and nail for political survival, with options including bringing independent MPs into the fold or engaging in awkward power-sharing deals with other conservative opposition parties such as the People’s Democratic Party (DPFP) and Japan. Innovation Party (better known as Nippon Ishin no Kai).

If all those avenues were cut short, he could become Japan’s shortest postwar prime minister, breaking the record of 54 days currently held by Prince Naruhiko Higashikuni, who ruled Japan from August to October 1945.

Nippon Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba said on October 27 that he was “not thinking at all” about working with the PLD. DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki, meanwhile, said the party “could” cooperate with the LDP, but only on an issue-by-issue basis.

There is also a small chance that a patchwork of fragmented opposition parties will coalesce around the leadership of former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, 67, who now heads the CDP, to get the numbers for a parliamentary majority.

Mr Noda rode a wave of discontent over the LDP’s handling of a slush fund scandal in which dozens of lawmakers were found to have kept millions of yen in fundraising income. He told packed rallies that “the best way to political reform was to change the government.”

A hung parliament would be reminiscent of Japan’s political landscape in 1993, when the LDP ceded power for the first time since its founding in 1955. But the fragile coalition of eight opposition parties collapsed after a year.

Political leaders have made desperate pleas to win votes since the campaign began on October 15. A report by the Jiji news agency revealed that they traveled a collective distance of 84,000 km – enough to go around the world twice – in the hope of pushing their candidates over the line.

Experts said the political uncertainty would have ramifications on domestic policymaking.

“The future is chaotic and the PDL will have a very difficult time managing parliamentary business or even implementing policies,” Dr Mikitaka Masuyama of the National Institute of Policy Studies told the Straits Times. “It would be another period of compromise, with policies of indecision.”

Sophia University political scientist Koichi Nakano told ST that the result should be punishment for a party that appears to have taken its dominance for granted.

“The LDP is like the Titanic – it’s a big ship that takes time to turn around,” he said. “The LDP tried to fix it with half-measures, but it was all too little, too late.”