Australian politics: What would a deadlocked parliament bring after poll chaos?

If opinion polls are to be believed, voters will deliver something Australian politics has experienced only twice in the last 114 years at the next federal election – a hung parliament in Canberra.

Labour’s hopes of retaining its two-seat majority are fading as support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues to erode, with the latest polls putting support on a two-party preference basis at 50-50.

Peter Dutton’s coalition would need to recover more than 20 seats to return to power on its own – an unlikely return after just one term in the opposition wilderness.

The scenario most experts predict involves a fragile and broken Labor government forced to govern with a green and teal crossbench – bringing with it its own demands and wish-lists and potentially forcing Mr Albanese to make some awkward agreements or negotiations.

Some argue this would be a recipe for chaos and political dysfunction – and potential economic catastrophe for WA.

The Sunday Times examines the prospect of a hung parliament, including those who will make or break it.

If neither Labor nor the Coalition are within reach of a 76-seat majority on election night, Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton will have to make the phones.

In 2010, with the major parties deadlocked on 72 seats, Prime Minister Julia Gillard secured deals with the Greens and three independents – Andrew Wilkie, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott – to prop up her minority government.

Mr Albanese says he is only interested in governing with a majority, refusing to even entertain the possibility of crossbench deals.

But political observers say that if Labor ends up in the minority, it would be unthinkable for him not to seek assurances that he can pass budgets and survive no-confidence motions.

The Greens hold four seats in the lower house and are likely to be kingmakers in a power-sharing Parliament.

The party is starting to compile a wish list of balance of power demands, which so far includes bringing dental care into Medicare and building 1,000 free health clinics.

The big spending policies could be paid for, the Greens say, by a $514 billion tax break on corporate profits, which WA Business warns would drive the state’s miners into “oblivion”.

A minority Labor government would face relentless – potentially irresistible – pressure to block new coal and gas projects, add a “climate trigger” to nature protection laws, commit to bigger targets to reduce emissions, abolish negative gearing and cap rents.

Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor warned the Greens would “wreak havoc” in a hung parliament.

Labor strongly ruled out adopting Robin Hood-style taxes and rubbished the Greens’ pie-in-the-sky ideas, an ominous sign about the potential of any deal.

But as the negotiations for the last hung parliament demonstrated, a lack of agreement on controversial policies does not make a deal impossible.

Then-Greens leader Bob Brown could not get Ms Gillard to immediately commit to a carbon tax or a path forward to legalize same-sex marriage.

But the Greens agreed to back Labor after securing dozens of other concessions, including a cross-party climate change committee that eventually recommended carbon pricing.

A young Adam Bandt was the only Green MP in the lower house at the time. Now party leader, Mr Bandt is open-minded about how the Greens would approach the next hung parliament.

“We are willing to be cooperative and provide a stable, efficient and progressive Parliament,” he said in an exclusive interview with The Sunday Times.

“We are not pushing for positions in the cabinet. What’s more important to us is getting results for ordinary people. In terms of how it works, all options would be on the table.”

Other backbenchers – including teal independents like Curtin MP Kate Chaney – have been vocal but powerless in the Labour-controlled lower house this term.

That would change in a hung parliament, where the fate of laws, or even who forms the Government, could rest in their hands.

The Sunday Times asked crossbench MPs which major party they would support to form Government (assuming both were in contention) and what concessions they would make in return.

Member for Mayo Rebekha Sharkie said voters in her historically conservative South Australian seat would expect her to talk to the Liberals first, although she did not commit to supporting them.

Liberal sources said Ms Sharkie and independent Larrikin Bob Katter would be the most likely MPs to join the Coalition.

In a statement to The Sunday Times, Mr Katter said he had no allegiance to either party.

“I have great respect for Peter Dutton and I’ve always been a close friend of Anthony Albanese, but I’m not interested in any of them – I’m interested in the millions of people in North Queensland,” he said.

Mr Wilkie – who represents the seat of Clark in Tasmania – will not sign a deal with either side after being burned last time when Ms Gillard backed out of promised reform.

Indi MP Helen Haines said she would “never do” a deal that would force her to vote a certain way all the time, pledging instead to treat each piece of legislation on its merits.

While teal independents traditionally hold Liberal ground, Liberal sources are skeptical that anyone would support a Dutton government, except perhaps Sydney MP Allegra Spender.

Ms Spender did not respond to questions from The Sunday Times.

But this week at the National Press Club, she revealed she’s open to supporting both sides.

“It starts with: ‘what are the numbers? What are the situations and what can you negotiate?” she said.

“I am clear, I will work with anyone. . . in a minority parliament. We don’t know what a Parliament will look at next time.”

Ms Chaney also refused to comment on her intentions, leaving Curtin voters in the dark about which way their local member might lean in a hung parliament.

She previously said she would look at issues on merit and would not want to be tied to votes in certain areas.

Separately, Ms Chaney said this week she did not agree with “planning skyscrapers in the suburbs” amid debate over how Australia should respond to the housing crisis.

“Putting high-rises in the suburbs without proper community consultation is not the way to win hearts and minds for higher density – which we badly need,” she said, echoing comments from fellow Melbourne teal Zoe Daniel and Monique Ryan, who criticized the Victorian Labor Government’s plans for pre-schools in their electorates.

On Saturday, analysis of voting records by News Corp found that teal independents had effectively voted as a bloc over the past three months, including 20 times from 21 in October.

In September, Turks voted the same 24 out of 27 times, and in August, 12 out of 15 times.

Ms Spender also confirmed she would continue to accept political donations from Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate-200, which is not a registered political party.

The 43rd Parliament was chaotic.

Ms Gillard was eventually stabbed by Kevin Rudd, who lost the 2013 election in a crushing defeat that began a decade in opposition.

But despite the turmoil, the hung parliament was remarkably productive, passing 561 pieces of legislation – even more than John Howard achieved when he controlled both houses between 2004 and 2007.

The National Disability Insurance Scheme, the Gonksi Education Reforms and the early rollout of the National Broadband Network were among the major and lasting achievements.

While the carbon tax was eventually repealed, remnants of the Labor-Green climate agenda remain, including the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

The independent parliamentary budget office – a condition of the Gillard-Bob Brown deal – is heavily used by opposition parties, minor parties and independents to cost and shape policy

Ben Oquist, who was Senator Brown’s chief of staff at the time, said: “You can have your opinions about the Gillard government, but you can’t say they didn’t pass legislation and get things done.”

Now a lobbyist with DPG Advisory Solutions, Mr Oquist said the decades-long decline in support for the major parties would lead to more deadlocked parliaments.

“The will of the electorate must be respected,” he said.

“And if they offer a hung Parliament, it’s pretty much up to everyone to make it work.”