Democrats have outscored Republicans on the airwaves since Harris entered the race, but the GOP is poised for a late push

CNN
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Democrats outspent Republicans in TV ads for the presidential race with wide margins in key developing states in the three months since Vice President Kamala Harris launched his campaign, supported by grassroots fundraising and external groups funded by deep-pocketed donors.

This will change, however, in the latter part of the campaign. According to a CNN analysis of AdImpact data covering TV spending and bookings from Oct. 22 through Election Day, Republicans are poised to take advantage in several key battlegrounds as Donald Trumphis and his campaign own wealthy backers counter with a late rise.

Through it all, Pennsylvania became the top target for both parties: The commonwealth alone accounted for about 22 percent of all ad buys during the condensed general election showdown, including bookings leading up to Election Day. (Advertising from both sides in the 15 weeks since President Joe Biden abandoned, including future reservations, exceeded $2 billion.)

Both Harris and Trump, as well as their allies, have identified Pennsylvania as the election’s main battleground, spending more there than in any other state. In fact, the Keystone State saw about $100 million more in advertising than the second-place state, Michigan. Democrats outspent Republicans in the Keystone State by about $37 million over the past three months.

Emphasizing that status, both parties ran campaign ads tailored to sweep Pennsylvania voters. Harris’ campaign produced several spots Philadelphians toting her callwhile Trump’s campaign ran ads Highlighting the state’s lucrative fracking industry.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin they make up the democratic “blue wall”. from the Great Lakes states that represent Harris’ best path to lock down the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. In Michigan, Harris and her allies outspent Republicans by nearly $58 million in the three months since the vice president entered the race — their biggest lead in any swing state. In Wisconsin, the Democratic margin is about $27 million.

Altogether, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin accounted for about 42 percent of all Democratic presidential ad buys between July 22, the day after Biden dropped his re-election bid, and October 21, two weeks before Election Day.

After being outscored by Democrats in all seven battleground states over the past three months, however, Republicans are now poised to gain gains in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina in the final two weeks of the campaign.

There are multiple qualifiers – future ad bookings are subject to change. Advertisers who book early spend less than advertisers who vie for limited TV slots late in the run. And the ad spending total includes buys from both candidates and outside groups, and candidates are charged less for advertising than outside groups, meaning some dollars go further than others.

It’s also crucial that Democrats have outspent Republicans in digital advertising, which, unlike TV advertising, isn’t booked far in advance, giving Harris and her allies another way to erode the Republican lead .

Still, after being dramatically outspent by Democrats in all seven battlegrounds, the ability of Trump and his allies to match or, in some cases, exceed the other party’s ad spending represents a significant shift in the balance. since the beginning of the campaign.

In Pennsylvania, Republican advertisers are poised to spend nearly $58 million over the past two weeks, more than $10 million more than Democratic advertisers, as both parties make a ferocious push for the so-called key state.

In Wisconsin, Trump and his allies had booked about $25 million worth of ad time, about $4 million ahead of Democrats, threatening to undermine Democrats’ efforts to maintain their blue wall. Earlier this week, MAGA Inc., one of the leading pro-Trump super PACs, added $11.5 million to its Badger State holdings for the past two weeks, underscoring the Republican effort to flip the state.

And in North Carolina, the target of a major advertising push by Harris and his allies for much of October, Republicans are set to outspend Democrats by about $1.9 million over the past two weeks.

Democrats are poised to maintain their ad spending advantage in the other four top battlegrounds, leading Republicans by about $1.1 million in Michigan, about $8.5 million in Georgia, about $3.1 million and in Arizona and about $1.6 million in Nevada.

In total, Democrats — the Harris campaign and outside allies — had about $208 million in ad bookings over the past two weeks, including about $33 million in national ad bookings, while Republicans had about $181 million, including $6.8 million in domestic bookings.

But despite the Democrats’ overall advantage, Trump’s campaign will outspend Harris’ campaign in advertising over the past two weeks, about $67 million to $53 million, a significant advantage given that candidates get advertising rates more favorable than outgroups.

As for outside groups backing their efforts, Democrats are poised to outspend Republicans by about $155 million to $114 million, with FF PAC, the main pro-Harris super PAC expected to play a key role as the most big advertiser in the final sprint. , representing approximately $129 million in ad spend.