Weather forecast for election day 2024: will it rain?

Just 10 days away now, Election day is fast approaching and the weather forecast for the historic day is coming into sharper focus.

Forecasters say the most active weather on Tuesday, Nov. 5, is likely to be in the central U.S., where a cold front could produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which could affect cradle states such as Wisconsin and Michigan.

And while weather is not typically considered a major factor in voting patterns, decades of research have found that stormy weather “discourages voting on Election Day in the US, particularly among young adults, non-voters in regularly and of voters. who tend to support Democrats,” according to a recent report from the The journalist’s resource.

While the weather could play a role in this election, the forecast looks pretty favorable across much of the country on November 5.

Storms in central US

First, no extreme cold or heat is forecast for Election Day anywhere in the U.S., as largely seasonal early November temperatures are expected. Additionally, many of the heavily populated regions on the east and west coasts should be dry and clear.

Election Day weather looks set to make headlines primarily in the central US as a cold front is forecast to cut across the region, bringing showers and storms, some of which could reach severe levels, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok told USA TODAY.

Major metropolitan areas, including Houston, Chicago and Detroit, could see showers and thunderstorms, according to AccuWeather. Some of the storms could be severe in the Tennessee Valley, middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.

As for the storms’ impact on Election Day, Pastelok said it depends on how intense they become and whether they produce severe weather such as tornadoes and hail. In addition, lightning would be a risk with any storm, he said, especially for people waiting in line outside to vote.

Ribs mostly clear

Most of the west and east coasts look clear and dry for Election Day this year, he said. This includes most swing states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.

One exception could be the Pacific Northwest, Pastelok noted, where rain could dampen voters in Seattle and Portland.

How does rain affect turnout?

According to a USA TODAY interview with weather360 trends CEO Bill Kirk, several academic journals report that for every 1 inch of rain on Election Day, there is a 2.5% drop in voter turnout, regardless of party affiliation.

In addition to which party benefits, he said other research shows that rainy election days have hurt the Democratic Party, as urban polls — which lean liberal — often have outside lines. Meanwhile, rural voters who lean red can commute by car, Kirk said.

The Weather Company’s Paul Walsh, in an email to USA TODAY before the previous election, said, “We know from polling that weather can have a major impact on voter turnout and that bad weather affects the ability of Democratic voters to get to the vote. polling places more than Republican voters.”

Extreme weather on election day

Some notable memories of Election Day weather, courtesy of him weather360 trends:

Arizonans went to the polls in 100-degree weather in 1924 (Calvin Coolidge won).

∎ Alaskans braved -41 degrees to re-elect Ronald Reagan in 1984.

∎ Hurricanes have also affected elections, most recently Hurricane Sandy in 2012 during the Obama-Romney race.