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Michigan Winter Forecast: Predictions for the 2024-25 season

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Michigan Winter Forecast: Predictions for the 2024-25 season

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Michigan and the rest of the Great Lakes region could be in for a wetter and warmer-than-average winter, according to NOAA’s US Winter Outlook released by the Climate Prediction Center.

The forecast, which covers December 2024 to February 2025, makes nationwide predictions for temperatures, precipitation and drought conditions.

But different agencies around the country have different predictions about what to expect this winter in Michigan. Here’s a breakdown of them.

NOAA is calling for a warmer, wetter winter in Michigan

In its seasonal temperature outlook, the eastern half of Michigan, including metro Detroit and the Thumb, has a 33%-40% chance of a warmer-than-average winter. The rest of the state is a roll.

But we can also expect Michigan to see a wetter winter. That means more rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain and hail. The 2024-2025 outlook puts the entire state at a 40%-50% chance of wetter than average conditions.

The Farmers’ Almanac calls for “cold” temperatures.

The Farmer’s Almanac, which was published this summer, looked to November in its winter forecasts, unlike NOAA.

Although the 208th edition of the Almanac predicts that much of the country will experience average or above-normal temperatures this winter, the Great Lakes region and the North Central States are an exception.

Michigan is one of several states that can expect periods of wet snow and rain in early November with “cold” temperatures through November 11.

Rain and wet snow continue through Thanksgiving, with a drier forecast later in the year. Christmas “looks wet rather than white in most areas,” Farmers’ Almanac Editor Sandi Duncan told USA TODAY.

More: Dozens of waterspout sightings were reported in the Great Lakes

More: Detroit’s 4-day Youmacon convention kicks off Halloween with anime, gaming, and cosplay

The end of January gets a red flag for much of the country because of the potential for “a very active storm track” that is expected to bring strong and gusty winds, along with heavy precipitation: “copious amounts of snow, rain, sleet and ice (depending on where you live) could fall,” says the Almanac.

Did the Farmers’ Almanac get its winter weather prediction right last year?

Not when you consider the Almanac’s global forecast of a cold 2023-2024 winter because it was the warmest on record. However, the Almanac notes that it met some of its predictions, including heavy show and blizzard conditions from Colorado to the plains that threatened Christmas holiday travel.

The Farmers’ Almanac, which originated in 1818, says its longtime supporters claim the publication’s weather predictions are accurate about 80 percent to 85 percent of the time. But many weather experts disagree with the predictions, saying the almanac’s weather reports may be no better than chance.

Old Farmer’s Almanac: Mild and dry in Michigan

In the competing Old Farmer’s Almanac, the winter season is expected to be mild and dry in metro Detroit, the Thumb and Up North. The western part of the state could see cold and dry conditions.

“The coldest periods are expected in early and late November, early December and from late January to early February,” the Almanac says in its 2024-25 winter forecast.

The heaviest snow periods are expected to come in late December, late January to early February and late February to early March.

AccuWeather is calling for a snowy December in Michigan

In AccuWeather’s forecast for the 2024-25 winter season, the agency predicts an increase in snow this season. Snow shoveling will be needed in the Northeast and Midwest this winter, AccuWeather says, but “they could pile up dust for part of the season as weather patterns play a tug-of-war between mild and rainy, and cold and snow”.

Specifically, during the month of December, AccuWeather expects to see short bursts of cold air that will trigger lake-effect snow, unlike last December when little lake effect was seen in typical areas.

Temperatures throughout the season could be one to two degrees above Michigan’s historic temperatures, AccuWeather predicts.

As for ski season? AccuWeather puts Michigan in “fair” ski conditions for the winter months.

More: After a challenging year, Mount Brighton is looking forward to a full season in 2024-25

What is the average winter temperature in Detroit?

Here’s what a typical winter season looks like in the region, according to the National Weather Service:

  • December: 37.2 degrees
  • January: 32.3 degrees
  • February: 35.2 degrees
  • March: 45.9 degrees

When does winter start?

That depends.

Meteorological winter, which runs from December to February and defines the seasons we usually think of when we say spring, summer, autumn and winter, begins on Sunday, December 1.

Astronomical winter begins with the winter solstice, which is the shortest day of the year when the north pole moves away from the sun. This year it is Saturday December 21, which will be at 5:21 am

Astronomical winter begins with the winter solstice, which is the shortest day of the year when the north pole moves away from the sun. This year it is Saturday December 21, which will be at 5:21 am

The USA TODAY Network contributed to this report.

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