The role of gender in shaping voter sentiment for the 2024 US election

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, a significant but subtle force is approaching the campaign: gender. In a contest often dominated by discussions of economics and character, the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris represents a critical turning point in American politics.

This election is not just a battle of ideas; has become a referendum on the role of women in American life, especially given Harris’ potential to become the nation’s first female president.

Gender landscape

With less than two weeks until election day, the stark reality of the gender divide in the electorate has emerged. While both candidates have largely avoided explicitly addressing gender in their campaigns, it remains a defining element that influences voter behavior and sentiment.

Pro-Harris stickers plastered in public spaces remind voters of solidarity among women, emphasizing that their choices at the ballot box are personal and private. Instead, Trump aides have resorted to derogatory language to undermine the opposition, suggesting a broader culture war is being waged on multiple fronts.

Survey data reveals a persistent gender gap. Women continue to support Democrats at significantly higher rates than men, a trend that has only intensified in recent months. According to a recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College, Harris leads Trump by 16 percentage points among likely female voters, while Trump has an 11-point lead among likely male voters. This divergence highlights the growing importance of gender dynamics in the current electoral landscape.

The roots of the gender divide

Several factors contribute to this gender gap, including Trump’s well-documented history of denigrating women, Harris’ trailblazing candidacy, and the lingering effects of the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court. Political analysts suggest that Harris’ bid for the presidency has tapped deep-rooted biases that may not have been as pronounced in previous elections. Observers point out that the 2024 race marks an unprecedented moment where gender plays a central role in determining electoral outcomes.

Gov. Janet Mills of Maine posed a thought-provoking question during a recent campaign event, asking a group of Democratic women whether the race would be as close if Harris were a man. The responses were swift and emphatic, suggesting that many believe Harris’ gender significantly affects his electoral prospects.

Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster, elaborated on that idea, noting that both campaigns are keenly aware of the need to appeal to female voters while also addressing the concerns of male voters. “It’s Whac-a-Mole,” Lake remarked, stressing the need for both candidates to have the support of both genders to pull off a win.

Influence of younger voters

The generational divide further complicates the dynamics of these elections. Younger voters, especially women between the ages of 18 and 29, show strong support for Harris, with 69 percent in favor of his candidacy compared to just 45 percent of young men. This stark contrast signifies a broader shift in attitudes toward female leadership among younger generations, who have grown up witnessing greater political representation for women.

Despite this positive trend, many Democratic supporters express unease about persistent biases hampering Harris’ campaign. Liz Shuler, president of the AFL-CIO, articulated the frustration felt by many: “Not being able to cross the final threshold of the highest position of power in the world would be a blow.”

Recognition of sexism in politics

While Harris remains optimistic about her chances, saying the nation is “absolutely” ready for a woman president, internal discussions in the Democratic camp reveal deep concerns. Some strategists believe the party is grappling with a new form of sexism that manifests itself more subtly than through overtly sexist comments.

As Harris’ campaign strategy unfolds, it diverges significantly from Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Instead of emphasizing her historic candidacy as a political asset, Harris tends to downplay the importance of her gender and race, focusing instead on political issues and the needs of the American people. This approach reflects both a desire to avoid repeating past mistakes and a determination to prove herself based on merit rather than identity.

Republican counterattack

By contrast, the Trump campaign appears to be banking on mobilizing male voters through traditional gender roles and hyper-masculinity. Their public statements often evoke images of protection and strength, which may resonate with a segment of the electorate that feels threatened by the changing dynamics of gender roles in politics. However, some Republican strategists express concern that this strategy risks alienating women, especially in light of the backlash against abortion restrictions since the Dobbs decision.

As the election nears, both campaigns are aware of the stakes. Harris’ campaign is actively courting the growing coalition of energetic voters who have consistently supported Democrats since Trump’s presidency. With a focus on restoring federal abortion rights and addressing the concerns of suburban women, Harris aims to solidify her base of support.

Former Representative Liz Cheney, a prominent Republican supporter of Harris, has articulated this message clearly, asserting the need to reject the misogyny exemplified by Trump and his allies. Cheney’s endorsement highlights a possible shift among moderate Republican women who may be disillusioned with the party’s current leadership.

As the race continues to unfold, the intersection of gender and politics remains a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the election. While both candidates struggle to navigate this complex landscape, the implications of gender on voter behavior are undeniable. The 2024 election could be a watershed moment for women in politics, with Kamala Harris at the forefront of this pivotal fight.

In the end, these elections are about more than politics or personalities; it is a reflection of societal attitudes toward women and leadership in America. As voters prepare to cast their ballots, the question remains: Will they embrace the changing gender dynamics in politics or retreat to familiar narratives that have historically sidelined women? The answer may redefine the very fabric of American political life for years to come.