US intelligence says foreign actors could fuel post-election violence

For Jonathan Landay i Patricia ZengerleReuters

A person votes during early voting at a polling place in the first round of early voting at a polling place on Oct. 21, 2024, in Daytona Beach, Florida.
Photo: AFP / Miguel J. Rodríguez Carrillo

Russia, China and Iran intend to stoke divisive narratives to divide Americans ahead of the Nov. 5 US election and may consider fomenting violence after voters go to the polls, US intelligence officials said Tuesday.

Officials, briefing reporters on U.S. election security, said foreign actors could consider physical threats and violence, and were very likely to conduct disinformation operations to create uncertainty and undermine the election process.

“Foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran, and China, remain determined to stoke divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans’ trust in America’s democratic system. These activities are consistent with the that these actors perceive is in their interest, even as their tactics continue to evolve,” said an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI).

That official said influential actors “especially Russia, Iran and China” have learned from previous US elections and were more prepared to seize opportunities to stoke unrest.

These actors could resort to the same type of tools that they have been using in the pre-electoral period – especially information and cyber operations – and could also take into account physical threats and violence, added the head of the ODNI.

But officials said U.S. intelligence has seen no collaboration between Russia, China and Iran in election-influence activities. And while foreign actors might try to disrupt the process on election day, stoking discontent, the voting system was secure enough that they couldn’t alter the outcome.

“Some foreign actors also have the ability to fuel protests and take violent actions during this (post-election) period,” the ODNI official said. “In particular, Iran and Russia are likely willing to at least consider tactics that contribute to this violence.”

Elections are expected to be close.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday showed Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris with a 46% to 43% lead over former Republican President Donald Trump.

The Russian and Chinese embassies in Washington and Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Russia, China and Iran have previously denied allegations of US election meddling.

On October 22, 2024, a voter casts their ballot at an early voting location at the Madison Public Library Central in Madison, Wisconsin.
Photo: AFP / Kamil Krzaczynski

Using AI

Tim Walz
Photo: Jim WATSON/AFP

The ODNI official said foreign actors were using social media and other online operations to influence presidential and congressional races, to denigrate some candidates or support others.

Some social media posts were likely generated by artificial intelligence, said the official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity.

As an example, the ODNI official pointed to a post on social media platform X this month generated by what he called Russian influence actors that made a false accusation against Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who is the Harris’ running mate.

Intelligence agencies assessed that Russian influence actors created the content, the ODNI official said. An agency review of the media showed “several indicators of tampering” consistent with the actions of Russian actors, the official said.

This official said that US intelligence concluded last weekend that the video was fake and the product of disinformation agents, adding that it was consistent with ongoing Russian efforts to undermine the presidential ticket Democrat making allegations against Harris and Walz.

US intelligence agencies have been assessing for months that Russia would prefer Trump to take back the White House.

At Tuesday’s briefing for reporters, intelligence officials said they expected further amplification of Russia protests if Harris wins the election.

“Russia would prefer the former president to win, and they would try to more aggressively undermine the then-president-elect’s (Harris) presidency,” the ODNI official said.

– Reuters