Boise State vs UNLV CFB week 9 prediction, odds, pick

Boise State and UNLV are the top teams in the Group of Five this season. Both have one loss, each to a Power Five team. Whoever wins this game has the inside track on the Group of Five spot in the 12-team CFP. It’s time to continue our college football odds series with a Boise State-UNLV prediction and pick.

Boise State has been great this season. They are 5-1 and have been one of the best stories in college football this season. They only have one loss to Oregon; it was neck and neck the whole game. UNLV is a great team, and the Broncos will have a big challenge because the winner of this game will also have the inside track for the Mountain West title.

UNLV has also been a big story this year, going 6-1. The only loss this year is a very close overtime game against Syracuse. They were embroiled in a PR nightmare after their starting quarterback, Matthew Sluka, accused them of not paying his NIL, but they’ve responded well. The Rebels have a big matchup in this game against the Broncos and benefit from being at home in Las Vegas.

Here are Boise State-UNLV college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College football odds: Boise State-UNLV odds

Boise State: -3.5 (-110)

Money line: -162

UNLV: +3.5 (-110)

Money line: +134

Over: 66.5 (-105)

Minus: 66.5 (-115)

How to watch Boise State vs UNLV

Time: 10:30 pm ET/7:30 pm PT

TV: CBSSN

Streaming: fuboTV (free trial)

Why Boise State could cover the spread/win

Boise State has been fantastic this season. They have the best offense in the Mountain West. They are averaging 523 yards and 46.8 points per game. Then, in yards, they are tied for fourth in the country and third in points scored. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been a consistent force in this offense. He has 1,273 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions with a 63.8% completion percentage. Cameron Camper has also been solid in the receiving game, with 441 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 25 receptions. The running game is the key for the Broncos because Ashton Jeanty is a bona fide star and a legitimate Heirman Trophy contender. Jeanty has 1,248 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on 126 carries. His stats are incredible and the Broncos still have six games left.

Boise State’s defense has been solid this season, allowing 26.2 points per game and 382 yards per game. The defense was solid but nothing special because they didn’t have to be special because of how well the attack is playing. The Broncos have been excellent against the ground game, ranking second in the Mountain West in rushing yards allowed at 105.7 yards, but have struggled against the pass, allowing 276.3 yards through the air. UNLV has a new quarterback in Hajj-Malik Williams, and he has the ability to light it up through the air, more than Sluka did, so this Broncos defense needs to step up.

Why UNLV could cover the spread/gain

UNLV has been a big story this season, and their offense is the story. They are averaging 43.6 points per game and 429.1 total yards per game. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has stepped in seamlessly this season after Matthew Sluka left the program. He has 838 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns and two interceptions with a 70.5% completion percentage. Ricky White III has been a star for the Rebels in the receiving corps. He has 614 receiving yards and nine touchdowns on 46 receptions, and is also a matchup nightmare for any team, regardless of whether it’s Group of Five or Power Four. The run game has also been very good for the Rebels, thanks to their balance. Williams leads the way, rushing the ball with 390 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 61 carries. Then Jai’Den Thomas is right behind him with 356 yards and three touchdowns on 62 carries. Finally, Kylin James has 325 yards and three touchdowns on 47 carries.

UNLV’s defense has been solid this season. They allow 22.6 points per game, the best scoring defense in the Mountain West. They also allow 382 yards per game. The Rebels’ run and pass defense couldn’t be more different. They have the best defense in the Mountain West, allowing 104.4 yards per game on the ground. They then allow the most passing yards per game this season at 278.7. This will be a great matchup for the Rebels defense because Jeanty is the best running back this defense will see all year.

Boise State-UNLV Final Pick and Prediction

There is a lot to like about UNLV. This offense is balanced and feels rejuvenated with Hajj-Malik Williams under center, and the defense has a lot to like. However, nothing is slowing down this Boise State train. The Broncos will have the best player in this game thanks to Jeanty, and then Maddux Madsen has been solid and can do more if they need to. Expect this to be one of the best games of the year, but Boise State should win and cover on the road.

Boise State-UNLV Prediction and Final Pick: Boise State -3.5 (-110)