‘Precipitation, the source of all fresh water, can no longer be trusted’: Global water cycle thrown out of balance ‘for the first time in human history’

More than half of the world’s food production is at risk of collapse in the next 25 years due to a growing global water crisis, a new report warns.

Climate change, destructive land use and the ongoing mismanagement of water resources mean that almost 3 billion people and more than half of the world’s food production are in areas facing “unsustainable stress precedents” in their water systems, the Global Commission on Water Economics said in a report released on 17 October.

If the trend is not reversed, the growing deficit will have a seismic impact on humanity and the environment. Several cities are already collapsing due to the loss of groundwater. In addition, up to 8% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 15% of the GDP of the lowest-income countries will be lost by 2050, according to the report.

“Today, half of the world’s population faces water scarcity,” said Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and one of the four co-chairs of the commission, in a statement. “As this vital resource becomes increasingly scarce, food security and human development are at risk, and we are allowing this to happen.”

“For the first time in human history, we are throwing the global water cycle out of balance,” he continued. “Precipitation, the source of all fresh water, can no longer be relied upon due to climate change and human-induced land use, which is undermining the foundations of human well-being and the economy global”.

Related: Will the US run out of water?

Each person needs a minimum of 13 to 26 gallons (50 to 100 liters) of water per day for their health and hygiene, but the commission found that this figure, which governments often rely on, is a gross underestimate .

The actual figure for adequate consumption and decent living is closer to 1,055 gallons (4,000 liters) per person each day, the report’s authors wrote. This volume is not possible in many parts of the world, putting additional pressure on trade to provide adequate food, clothing and consumer goods.

Current approaches to the water crisis focus primarily on the “blue water” found in rivers, lakes and aquifers, while overlooking the vital “green water” contained in soil and plants. This water travels around the world in cycles in atmospheric rivers to generate approximately half of the rain that falls on earth.

Areas of India, China, Russia and Europe are highly dependent on the flow of green water, putting them increasingly at risk of water shortages as weather systems are disrupted. In recent years, the Amazon has suffered severe droughts that threaten to turn rainforest into savannah, glaciers have melted at unprecedented rates, and Europe has experienced deadly floods. An earlier study has also highlighted the dangers in North America, with nearly half of the 204 US freshwater basins projected to fall below demand by 2071.

The problem is the widespread underestimation of water in many areas. This allows water use in already stressed regions to be diverted to fast-growing data centers and coal-fired power plants. By introducing appropriate prices and subsidies, switching to plant-based diets, restoring natural habitats and recycling wastewater, researchers argue that water can be distributed more efficiently and equitably.

“The global water crisis is a tragedy, but it is also an opportunity to transform the economics of water, and to begin by valuing water properly to recognize its scarcity and the many benefits it offers,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director general of the World Trade Organization and a co-chair of the commission, said in the statement.

The Global Commission on Water Economics was created by the Netherlands in 2022, using the expertise of dozens of scientists and economists to create a 202-page report that assesses all aspects of the current crisis and suggests solutions to the politicians

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