What the leaked US assessment of Israeli plans to attack Iran shows

US investigators are trying to figure out how a pair of highly classified intelligence documents were leaked online.

The documents, which surfaced on messaging app Telegram on Friday, appear to reveal details of the Israeli Air Force’s (IAF) plans for upcoming missile strikes on Iran.

On Monday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said President Joe Biden was “deeply concerned” by the leak.

Officials have not determined whether the documents were released because of a hack or a leak, Kirby said.

For three weeks now, Israel has been vowing to hit Iran hard in retaliation for Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1.

Iran says it was in response to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.

Are the documents authentic?

Almost certainly yes.

Military analysts say the wording used in the headlines appears credible and is consistent with similar classified documents released in the past.

Headed “Top Secret”, they include the acronym “FGI”, which stands for “Foreign Government Intelligence”.

The documents appear to have been distributed to the intelligence agencies of the Five Eyes alliance, the five Western nations that regularly share intelligence, namely the US, UK, Canada, Australia and new zealand

The acronym “TK” in the documents refers to “Keyhole Talent,” a code word covering satellite-based signals intelligence (SIGINT) and imagery intelligence (IMINT).

What do they tell us?

Together, the two documents are a classified U.S. assessment of Israel’s preparations to strike targets in Iran, based on geospatial intelligence gathered and analyzed on October 15-16.

What stands out is the mention of two air-launched ballistic missile (ABLM) systems: Golden Horizon and Rocks.

Rocks is a long-range missile system manufactured by the Israeli company Rafael and designed to hit a variety of targets both above and below ground. Golden Horizon is believed to refer to the Blue Sparrow missile system with a range of about 2,000 km (1,240 miles).

The significance of this is that it would indicate that the Israeli Air Force plans to conduct a similar but greatly expanded version of its ABLM strike on an Iranian radar site near Isfahan in April.

Dropping these weapons from long range and far from Iran’s borders would avoid the need for Israeli warplanes to fly over certain countries in the region such as Jordan.

The documents also report no indication of any preparations by Israel to activate its nuclear deterrent.

At Israel’s request, the US government never publicly acknowledges that its close ally Israel even possesses nuclear weapons, so this has caused some embarrassment in Washington.

what do they do no you tell us

There is no mention in these documents of what targets Israel intends to attack in Iran, or when.

The US has made no secret of its opposition to targeting Iran’s nuclear research facilities or its oil facilities.

That leaves military bases, likely those belonging to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliated Basij militia, as these two institutions see themselves as the backbone of the Islamic Republic, projecting its military reach abroad and suppressing popular protest at home.

As for the timing, many had expected Israel to have fulfilled the promised retaliation by now. But in April, Iran waited 12 days before striking Israel again with a 300-drone and missile bombardment after an Israeli airstrike hit its diplomatic buildings in Damascus, killing several IRGC commanders.

Part of the current delay in Israel’s response is likely due to U.S. concerns about the escalation with the U.S. presidential election less than a month away.

Were they leaked on purpose?

Possibly yes, by someone who wanted to derail Israel’s plans.

Iran has a large and sophisticated cyber warfare capability, so the possibility of hostile hacking is also being investigated.

These documents, if genuine as thought highly likely, show that despite the close defense relationship between the United States and Israel, Washington still spies on its ally in case it is not given the full picture.

They show that the Israeli Air Force’s plans to carry out some form of long-range retaliation against Iran are well advanced and that mitigation is being put in place against an expected Iranian response.

In short: If Israel carries out these plans, the Middle East will once again experience a period of extreme tension.