Fact Check: Trump Boasts He’s ‘Heavily Leading with the Catholic Vote’

Former President Donald Trump’s speech at the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation dinner in New York City on Thursday night was met with a mix of cheers and applause as he attacked Vice President Kamala Harris, her husband Doug Emhoff and others.

The Al Smith dinner, named after the country’s first Catholic presidential candidate, is considered a highlight of the election campaign. Politicians from both sides of the aisle broke bread and exchanged pleasantries at the benefit dinner, which aims to raise funds for women and children in need.

During his speech, Trump told the crowd that he was “overwhelmingly” among Catholic voters, a claim not fully supported by available data.

The Claim

At the Al Smith dinner in New York City on Oct. 17, Trump said, “And all the polls show that I’m leading by a lot with the Catholic vote, as I should be. As I should be.”

the facts

While Trump leads in some polls among Catholic voters, he is not the leader in “every poll” and his claim that he has a “huge” lead is debatable.

A survey published this week by New Catholic reporter showed Trump ahead by five percentage points in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

While Trump led by 16 percentage points among white Catholic voters, the data also showed that seven in 10 Hispanic Catholics and more than three-quarters of black Catholics preferred Harris.

Last month’s data from Pew Research showed similar results. In a survey conducted from August to September, Pew found that Catholic respondents overall were more likely to vote for Trump “if the 2024 presidential election were held today,” leading by five percentage points. However, the results were significantly split between subgroups, with 61 percent of white Catholics choosing Trump and 65 percent of Hispanic Catholics choosing Harris.

Conversely, in the same month, EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research showed a Harris lead among Catholic voters polled, with 50% supporting the Democratic presidential nominee, 43% for Trump and 6% undecided.

Other data suggests that Trump’s lead among Catholics may have declined since President Joe Biden withdrew as the Democratic presidential nominee. April’s Pew Research found that Trump had voter support among 55 percent of Catholic respondents. That fell to 52 percent in the September 2024 Pew survey.

So while Trump can claim an advantage, its significance seems debatable.

Newsweek A Trump media representative has been contacted by email for comment.

In mid-September, Pope Francis criticized both US presidential candidates for abortion and migration policies.

“Both are against life, whether it’s the one that expels migrants or the one that (admits) killing babies,” the Pope said during a news conference on the papal plane, referring to Trump and Harris respectively.

“Both are against life,” Francis reiterated.

The Sentence

Context of needs.

A poll released this week said Trump led by five percentage points among Catholic voters in the seven battleground states. Another in September showed a five percentage point lead among Catholic respondents.

However, Harris had a significant lead among black and Catholic Hispanics within these polls. At least one other poll conducted in September showed Harris ahead by seven percentage points among Catholics.

While Trump has the lead in some polls, his description of that lead as “huge” seems open to interpretation.

FACT CHECKING BY Newsweek’s fact-checking team