On Election Day, Floridians vote after an expensive campaign season

Big ballots and campaign money

Floridians head to the polls on Tuesday after an expensive campaign season.

Conformable BallotpediaFlorida posted the second-highest campaign spending in the nation, with only California ahead.

Across the country, of the 159 ballot measures, the most expensive are the two Amendment 3 and Amendment 4 in Florida.

If passed, Amendment 3 would legalize marijuana for all adults 21 and older, while Amendment 4 would enshrine the right to abortion in Florida’s constitution.

Research group OpenSecrets reports that of the more than $417 million raised for ballot measures across the country, $125 million was raised in support of or against Florida’s Amendment 3 and $85 million for or against Amendment 4.

Patrick Rickert, associate professor of political science at Rollins College, said these expenses are unusual.

“Floridians are no strangers to a lot of campaign spending because the thing that tends to drive campaign spending is the competitiveness of the race,” he said. “Florida, when they were a swing state nationally, saw a lot more spending, but because these ballot initiatives require a supermajority to pass, they are more competitive now, even at a time when Florida has become more little competitive, at least from a partisan point of view. basis.”

Although ballot measures receive a large amount of contributions, Rickert said congressional races also attract a lot of out-of-state money, especially if they are expected to be close elections or could result in control of the House or Senate.

But, he said, as Florida has become more Republican and less competitive at the state level, campaigns have received less money. For example, the Senate race here is between incumbent Republican Rick Scott and former U.S. Rep. and Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powel.

“This year, the Florida Senate race is ninth most expensive Senate races out of 33, but nowhere near the amount spent in Texas, Montana or Ohio, the far more competitive Senate races,” he said.

Growing ads

The vast majority of money spent on ballot measures is used for advertising.

But Rickert said there is a limit to what can be spent on traditional advertising for campaigns such as television or radio.

“Eventually you reach kind of a physical limit to the amount of mail you can send,” he said. “So campaigns have moved more and more to these new media sources like text messaging, social media, internet advertising, and where we’ve probably seen the most visible growth for almost everyone is in these text messages. ”

Conformable Roboilleracross the country, Americans received 15 billion political text messages in 2022, a midterm election year.

Florida ranked fourth for the most political texts in 2022 with 1.09 billion texts.

“Early estimates say it will be about three times that in 2024,” Rickert said.

Text message ads can be effective, Rickert said, because people who receive political texts are generally more likely to vote.

He adds that it is also cost-effective.

“Most of these texts ask you for some kind of contribution, and really what we’re finding is that they do (raise money) because they’re so cheap,” he said. “In general, one person can send about a thousand of these text messages in an hour, even if one or two people donate $20, it’s cost effective to send these text messages.”

The amount of money a campaign spends on advertising depends on the location and competitiveness of the race, Rickert said.

“Some places like California or Florida are just more expensive to buy airtime,” he said. “The Montana Senate election, which is not a very expensive place to advertise, is the third most expensive Senate race in the country because it’s been pretty close all along.”

What Big Spending Means for Florida

Although affordable advertising options like texts can mean a bombardment of messages on voters’ phones, Rickets said the money spent in this election shows people see possibilities in Florida’s ballot measures.

“I think a lot of people who don’t live in Florida might think that spending money on these initiatives might open up opportunities for people who might want to invest in Florida or live here later,” he said.

However, Rickert said more money doesn’t guarantee the measure will pass or a candidate will win.

“The social science research on whether more money actually leads to electoral success is really unclear,” he said. “We tend to find that the campaign that raises the most money and spends the most money tends to win. But that doesn’t mean it’s the money that actually causes that victory.”

Rickert explains that popular candidates are more likely to raise more money, “so the popular candidates may win.”

When it comes to election spending, Rickert said there are two types.

“There is spending that happens by candidates and their campaign committees,” he said. “And then there’s what’s called independent spending. There are not the same campaign finance donation limits nor disclosure requirements about those independent expenditures.”

Rickert said this is where the “Dark Money” concern comes into play.

“Money where it’s not necessarily clear who’s spending it, and that’s where a lot of the concerns about the amount of campaign money come from.”

He said those concerns are typically found in national races like the Senate.

“We haven’t seen that many in these state constitutional amendments where it’s been pretty clear who’s on both sides,” he said.

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