Here are the 5 Sectors Most at Risk in the Presidential Election – BNN Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — Next month’s U.S. elections will be a clash of visions that will reverberate across the global economy for years to come.

In some cases, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump skipped over how to address issues important to major industries like technology. Most importantly, it includes how each candidate will move forward with antitrust efforts targeting tech giants in the wake of the Biden administration’s increased sanctions.

Still, presidential and congressional elections have clear business implications. Here are the five sectors most at risk on Election Day:

Big Banks

The eight largest U.S. banks face the need to hold more capital to better protect their solvency against financial shocks. This means less money to be passed on to shareholders through share buybacks or dividends. Banks also argue that the new rule will reduce lending to consumers and businesses.

The presidential election will likely determine how soon the requirements take effect and how much additional capital will be needed.

If Harris prevails, U.S. regulators will likely invoke the provision of Basel III, the international regulatory agreement reached in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Major institutions such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan will face a 9% increase in capital requirements under a plan the Federal Reserve previewed last month. Under a Democratic administration, Bloomberg Intelligence sees a 60% chance of the requirement being finalized by the third quarter of 2025.

But BTIG chief executive Isaac Boltansky said if Trump wins, rulemaking efforts will be delayed and ultimately softened significantly. Trump has also said he would seek less regulation of the financial sector in a number of other areas.

Boltansky added that higher capital requirements reduce bank profits overall, but it’s difficult to predict the resulting impact until full details are finalized.

healthcare

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that insurers like Centene and UnitedHealth face a $25 billion revenue drop in 2026 if enhanced Obamacare subsidies aren’t extended when they expire at the end of next year.

Harris and congressional Democrats strongly support extending the subsidies. That won’t be a priority for Trump and Republicans, who have vowed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, said Larry Levitt, vice president of KFF, a nonprofit health policy research group. Losing subsidies would be “money out of insurers’ and hospitals’ pockets,” he said.

Subsidies help millions of Americans pay for health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Obamacare enrollment could decline by 3.8 million people in a year if increased subsidies are not extended.

Levitt said growing Republican influence would likely reduce pressure on the pharmaceutical industry to negotiate lower prices that Medicare pays for prescription drugs.

Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla and Rivian and well-established automobile manufacturers such as General Motors, which has invested heavily in technology, contribute greatly to the presidential race.

Tax incentives for consumer EV purchases and auto emissions standards that encourage the production of less-polluting vehicles are at risk.

A Harris win would mean federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for new electric vehicles and $4,000 for used vehicles would likely apply, while under Trump those taxes could be scrapped or reduced through tighter “Buy American” restrictions, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Trump has made his goal clear: He promises to end Biden’s policies favoring electric vehicles “on day one.”

Trump softened his rhetoric on electric vehicles somewhat after receiving the endorsement of Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. Yet he still rails on the campaign trail against Biden policies, which he incorrectly calls the “EV mandate.”

Repealing clean energy industry subsidies or consumer incentives would require Republican majorities in the House and Senate, said Sarah Bianchi, senior managing director at Evercore ISI. The biggest risk, he said, is that Trump will use executive branch authority to limit them through regulatory changes.

Retail

If Trump wins, retailers will suffer from sharp tariff increases on consumer products. Tariffs threaten to impact sales volume and profit margins, with the biggest impact on goods made in China, Bloomberg Intelligence said in a note.

Trump has promised tariffs of 10 percent to 20 percent on all imported goods and 60 percent on Chinese products, and a trade war cycle of retaliation and backlash could push tariffs even higher. Henrietta Treyz, managing partner at investment advisor Veda Partners, said retail is uniquely exposed because the tariffs will cover a wide range of products.

According to the American Apparel & Footwear Association, 97 percent of clothing and 98 percent of shoes and other footwear sold in the United States are imported. More than 90% of consumer electronics sold in the country are imported, according to the Consumer Technology Association.

China is the dominant source, accounting for more than a third of imported clothing, more than half of imported shoes, 79% of laptops, 78% of smartphones and 87% of video game consoles, according to industry trade groups.

Harris is unlikely to increase tariffs across all segments as Trump plans, Treyz said, and will instead focus on specific sectors, product lines and export controls.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but the higher costs are mostly passed on to U.S. retailers and consumers.

Energy

Oil, gas and coal producers will benefit in countless ways from Trump’s victory, and they could do even better if Republicans also gain control of Congress. Clean energy producers will benefit from a Harris and Democratic administration; Offshore wind will be particularly threatened if Trump is elected.

Trump has vowed to reverse the Biden administration’s pause on new licenses needed to export liquefied natural gas on a large scale. More than a dozen projects costing billions of dollars are awaiting permits, including Venture Global LNG Inc.’s upcoming CP2 project in Louisiana. The Energy Information Administration estimates that more export capacity would increase prices and sales volume for U.S. natural gas producers.

Similarly, Trump says he will “end” Biden regulations that limit carbon dioxide emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants and extend the life of more fossil fuel-burning plants. Biden’s measures to force oil and gas companies to spend more to limit climate-warming methane emissions are also vulnerable, and Trump will seek to reduce their costs by reducing overall regulatory burdens on energy companies.

But Trump is unlikely to persuade American oil producers to “drill, baby, drill” and significantly increase production. U.S. oil production is already at a record high, and investors will resist calls to spend money to pump more at the expense of dividends and share buybacks.

As the Biden administration rushes to get funding from its signature climate law, Trump will seek to restrict the reach of the law’s subsidies and tax credits by rewriting regulatory rules, said Kevin Book, managing director of a Washington consulting firm. ClearView Energy Partners LLC.

The former president was particularly hostile to offshore wind energy. Proposed projects run the risk of being denied necessary approvals, and even already approved projects may face jeopardy.

–With help from Jennifer A. Dlouhy.