The battle for control of the Senate goes down as spending breaks records

AP Photo Gene J. Puskar, left; and AP Photo Paul Sancya, File This image combination shows, from left, Republican Pennsylvania Senate candidate David McCormick, left, in Pittsburgh, Sept. 21, 2023, and his opponent, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa. ., in Chicago on August 22, 2024.

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters in the Rust Belt, Rocky Mountains and American Southwest as the two major political parties portray their opponents’ candidates as extreme in a battle for control of the U.S. Senate. .

In just three races — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana — more than $1 billion is expected to be spent by Nov. 5.

The Ohio race could break the spending record for Senate races. Montana’s race will become the most expensive Senate race ever on a vote-by-vote basis. And in the late game, Democrats are sending millions more dollars to Texas, a GOP stronghold where the party has new hopes of unseating conservative Sen. Ted Cruz, an upset that could help them protect their majority.

Republicans need to pick up two seats to secure a safe majority, and one of those — West Virginia — is almost in the bag for the GOP.

Other races are more volatile and less predictable.

For Democrats, the brutal math of this year’s election cycle forces them to defend eight seats in tough states. Losses by established incumbents could amount to an extinction-level event for Democrats who represent reliably Republican states.

The election will also test the strength of both parties’ downvoting in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the main presidential battleground states known as the Blue Wall for their relatively safe Democratic voting history. Republican wins there would dramatically alter the Senate playing field.

In all, data from political ad tracking firm AdImpact projects that more than $2.5 billion will be spent on advertising in Senate races this two-year campaign cycle, slightly more than the 2022 total.

That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania and $280 million in Montana, a population of 1.1 million or less than one-tenth the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most expensive Senate race ever was Democrat John Ossoff’s victory in a Georgia contest that went to a runoff in 2021 and decided control of the Senate, according to data from campaign finance tracker Open Secrets.

Campaign strategists generally say that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is polling ahead of his party’s Senate nominees in Senate battleground states, while Democratic candidates in those states are polling ahead of their presidential nominee, Kamala Harris.

That means there’s a portion of voters who might vote for Trump but don’t support Republicans in Senate races — or who might split tickets with Democratic Senate candidates.

Such ruptures were rare. In Maine in 2020, voters endorsed Democrat Joe Biden for president and re-elected Republican Sen. Susan Collins, for example.

Republican strategists said they expect the party’s major super PACs to spend by Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending their Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive races. but also Nevada and Arizona, where the Republicans are. encouraged by strong early voting numbers.

Republicans are most confident of flipping the seat in Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Tester for a third term. They are also bullish on safe-red Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno is challenging Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for a third term.

Torunn Sinclair, a spokesman for a pair of Republican-aligned super PACs, said one — American Crossroads — is pulling $2.8 million from Montana, while the pair is throwing a few million more into Pennsylvania.

There, Republican David McCormick is trying to unseat three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in a presidential battleground that both sides say is close.

McCormick, the former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, delivered the message in two debates that Casey is a “sure thing” to support the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.

In recent days, Casey has begun running an ad in conservative areas promoting his “greed” legislation to target rising prices. The ad says “Casey rejected Biden to protect fracking” and “sided with Trump” on trade and tariffs.

Republicans say Casey’s ad featuring Trump is similar to a TV ad Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin is running that talks about the need for both Democrats to guard against Harris’ vulnerability in their states.

“They’re hoping to eliminate enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.

Still, Casey ran a similar ad in the 2018 midterm elections, when he won handily — even though that ad didn’t mention Trump — while Casey’s campaign notes that he has long since broken with Democrats, opposing to free trade agreements and supporting fossil fuel energy projects.

Democrats, by contrast, say they are forcing competitive contests late in the campaign in two red states, Texas and Nebraska. Removing incumbent Republicans from one or both seats could help Democrats split at least 50-50 in the Senate if Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.

In Texas, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former pro football player, has proven adept at raising small-dollar donations in his challenge to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred outperformed all Senate candidates nationally except Tester and Brown.

The ad spending lead for Allred was 3 to 2, according to AdImpact, the Senate Democratic-aligned PAC, promoting a new seven-figure digital ad buy and a separate $5 million TV ad buy attacking Cruz on a key issue for Democrats, abortion rights.

In addition, Democrats hope that Harris’ rally in Houston on Friday with Allred and Beyonce can help Allred by increasing black voter turnout.

In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn — a tattooed former labor leader who supports abortion rights — appears to have consolidated Democratic and independent voters while making some inroads among Republicans, Democratic strategists say.

While Osborn is running as an independent and has not said which party he would caucus with, he is receiving support from a liberal super PAC that has helped him gain a significant spending lead over Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.

In both states, Republicans admit they had to spend unexpectedly to shore up the prospects of their incumbents, but they also say they expect to win comfortably.