3 contract comparisons for a Maple Leafs John Tavares extension – The Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs

Any speculation about strained relations between the Toronto Maple Leafs and John Tavares following the transition of club captaincy to Auston Matthews can be put to bed, just as any wild theory about the Maple Leafs’ intentions probably should be. of taking the star away from his hometown. he walked again. Recent reports suggest the organization has begun contract talks to extend the 34-year-old pending free agent.

Even as Tavares ages, he brings value as an on-ice leader, solid center and potent producer, so it’s reasonable for both sides to expect their relationship to extend beyond 2024-25. The issue comes down to money and timing, as it always does in these cases. While Tavares deserves recognition for his NHL pedigree (over 1,000 points in over 1,100 career games), the Maple Leafs need to be cautious about what his next few years will look like. In other words, don’t expect another $11 million a year hit.

What is fair value for Tavares, who will be 35 once his new contract begins next season? A few comparisons around the league paint a clearer picture.

Steven Stamkos – Four years, $32 million

There are no shortage of parallels between Tavares and Steven Stamkos. They are two Greater Toronto Area natives who were selected first overall in back-to-back drafts (Stamkos in 2008 and Tavares in 2009). Both have enjoyed highly decorated careers and are among the top 10 active players with more than 1,000 career points. They are separated in age by only seven months (Stamkos is older).

It’s Stammertime. pic.twitter.com/a1r50m0LHP

— Nashville Predators (@PredsNHL) September 22, 2024

Stamkos has had a more productive career (nearly 100 more points in 27 fewer games) and has two Stanley Cup rings. He’s also aged a little more gracefully, maintaining a higher level of production (40 goals and 81 points last season, compared to Tavares’ 29 goals and 65 points) well into his thirties.

However, the main reason Stamkos’ contract is on the high end of what is expected of Tavares is the context of the deal. Instead of remaining with the Tampa Bay Lightning in a presumably more team-friendly deal, Stamkos accepted a hefty offer from the Nashville Predators and now represents a different NHL team for the first time in his 17-year career. If Tavares chooses to hit the open market in free agency, he may find better money and time than Toronto is willing to offer.

Matt Duchene – One year, $3 million

On the other end of the spectrum is Matt Duchene, who was drafted two spots after the 15-year veteran in 2009. On July 1, he signed a one-year deal to remain with the Dallas Stars.

While Duchene has experienced more ups and downs than Tavares, they are very similar players at this stage. Duchene had 25 goals and 65 points in Dallas last season and, like Tavares (for now, anyway), has settled into the second center role on a team with ambitious postseason goals. Perhaps because of those expectations, the 33-year-old took a deal, the kind of contract deal the Maple Leafs surely hope can convince Tavares to stay in Toronto (as they did with Mark Giordano).

At this point, the Duchene deal is the ideal scenario for the Maple Leafs. That way, they keep Tavares in the game at a significant save, freeing up cap space to spend on players like Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe and Joseph Woll. However, they would have to offer more long-term job security to convince him to sign for a low cap figure.

You may also like it

Ryan O’Reilly – Four years, $18 million

While Maple Leafs fans may not want to remember the contract that sealed Ryan O’Reilly’s departure from Toronto, the deal he signed with the Predators in the summer of 2023 is the best comparable for Tavares. That contract also paid off in Nashville in the first year.

O’Reilly was coming off a massive eight-year, $60 million contract when he signed with the Predators. In exchange for taking a $3 million annual cut (his current cap hit is $4.5 million), he was given a four-year deal that will expire when he turns 36. While O’Reilly was only 32 when he signed his new contract, Tavares will be approaching 35, so perhaps a two- or three-year tenure will be more feasible.

O’Reilly’s 2023-24 campaign is likely disheartening for anyone who would have expected him to still be in blue and white, but also encouraging for those looking for the best value in Tavares’ upcoming deal. In his Nashville debut, O’Reilly recorded 26 goals and 69 points while playing a full 82 games in what was his best season since 2018-19. By the playoffs, he had turned back the clock to the point where he was averaging 22:32 of ice time per game.

Somewhere between Stamkos’ $8 million a year and Duchene’s $3 million is a group of aging stars who are playing out their twilight years. Along with Stamkos, Duchene and O’Reilly, there are players like Anze Kopitar, Evgeni Malkin, Jonathan Marchessault, Claude Giroux and Mats Zuccarello. Like them, Tavares is willing to add value to his next contract, but at what price and for what term? The Maple Leafs may be about to find out.