How Putin sees the choice between Harris and Trump and what the election means for Russia

The question asked Vladimir Putin in September about the US election drew a wry smile and an arched eyebrow from the Russian president.

Asked if he preferred Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, Putin drew listeners in with his teasing response, which also included a gentle jab at President Joe Biden.

“Our favorite, if you can call it that, was the current president, Mr. Biden,” he told an audience at an economic forum in the Far Eastern port of Vladivostok.

“But he was removed from the race and advised all his supporters to support Ms Harris. Well, we’ll do that — we’ll support her,” he said sardonically, citing her “expressive and infectious laugh” that shows she’s “doing well.”

Tuesday’s election has significant stakes for the Kremlin and, despite Putin’s non-committal and somewhat teasing response, appeared to encapsulate Russia’s vision as a choice between two unappealing possibilities.

Analysts say neither offers much promise of improving relations that have hit their lowest point since the Cold War.

Harris, the current vice president, has taken a hard line against Russia, while Trump, the former president, is known for his admiration for Putin. Still, at the September gathering, Putin complained that when Trump was in office, there were “so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia that no other president has ever introduced before him.”

Timothy Colton of the Harvard Academy of International and Area Studies said the Kremlin leadership is “generally convinced that nothing good will come of the election from Russia’s point of view.”

But he added that overall Trump “is probably their preference; he’s more of a known quantity.”

Key issues for Russia as the US election approaches:

What will happen to the aid to Ukraine?

Harris is seen as likely to continue the Biden administration’s massive military and economic support for Ukraine invasion of Russia extends to the third year.

Trump has boasted that his relationship with Putin and respect from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi are so strong that he could negotiate an end to the war “within 24 hours”. He declines to elaborate on his strategy, but recent remarks criticizing sanctions in general suggest he may lift those against Russia as an incentive to help resolve the conflict.

During their debate, Trump twice refused to answer directly if he wanted Ukraine to win the war, while Harris praised Western support for Kiev and urged it to continue.

“Otherwise, Putin would be sitting in Kiev with his eyes on the rest of Europe. Starting with Poland,” she said.

Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, mentioned proposals that could hint at Trump’s thinking: that Ukraine demilitarize territory occupied by Russia and accept permanent neutrality. Those terms would be anathema to Kiev, but Trump showed little sympathy for Ukraine, saying Zelenskyy “should never have let the war start.”

Harris did not specify how her position would differ from Biden’s. The US has given Ukraine more than $59.5 billion in arms and aid since Russia invaded in 2022. She previously said it would be foolish to risk the global alliances the US has built and condemned its “brutality” Little.

A Harris victory “likely promises continued US support as long as the administration can maintain congressional support,” the International Crisis Group said in a commentary, although it said it may seek to end the fighting more actively than it has Biden. Growing congressional animosity over huge aid spending for Ukraine could hinder or reshape his strategy.

How will the US approach Russia on human rights?

Harris has confronted Russia directly on such matters, particularly the death in prison of the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. She was among the first foreign leaders to comment on his death, calling it “another sign of Putin’s brutality”.

Trump delayed comments for days, then did not connect Putin to the matter. He compared Navalny’s sentence to his own fraud prosecution, calling his case “a form of Navalny”.

Trump has called for a bill to declare there are only two sexes and has pledged to keep transgender women out of women’s sports — positions that parallel how Russia under Putin has rolled back LGBTQ+ rights and praised “traditional values.”

His characterization of Democrats and his rivals as the “enemy within” is little different in spirit from Russia’s accelerated crackdown on the opposition.

How will NATO be affected?

Trump fought with other members of the NATO Alliance, demanding that they meet agreed spending levels for their militaries in their national budgets. He said that as president he warned leaders that he would not only refuse to defend nations that do not meet those targets, but that Russia could “do whatever the hell it wants” to those countries.

Trump also questioned the mutual defense clause of the NATO Charter, asking in an interview why the United States should be required to defend “very aggressive people” in NATO member Montenegro.

Harris says the United States’ commitment to NATO is “ironclad.” She did not assess whether she supports Ukraine becoming a member of the alliance.

What about arms control agreements with Russia?

Putin has done it repeatedly wielding the nuclear sword as he seeks deter the West from the support of Ukraine.

The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Moscow and Washington, New START, is set to expire in 2026, a year after the new administration takes office, and its outlook is murky.

Biden quickly renewed the treaty after taking office, and Harris could be expected to follow that support for the pact that limits the number of ICBMs.

Russia has suspended participation in 2023 – although it has not withdrawn – and the US has retaliated with measures including halting the exchange of information on the location and status of missiles.

Trump, while warning of the threat of “nuclear warming”, has taken steps in office to dismantle the arms control regime, including withdrawing from the INF Treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces – which banned nuclear and conventional ground-based missiles. with a range of 500-5,500 kilometers (310-3,410 miles),

While in office, Trump has called for a new nuclear pact that includes both Russia and China.