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ESPN FPI updates teams’ chances to make the dance after Week 7

Monicel
ESPN FPI updates teams’ chances to make the dance after Week 7

Notre Dame’s 49-7 win over Stanford was just a small part of the Week 7 story in college football. Sure, the Irish went 5-1 as their season hit the halfway point, but a lot more happened and affected the run to the 12-team College Football Playoff.

ESPN’s Football Power Index updated its numbers Sunday morning, and in it, Notre Dame’s chances for a playoff berth increased significantly. We took a look at this early Sunday from a Notre Dame-specific standpoint, but now they want to look at each team’s chances of making the dance.

Below are the updated chances to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. Every team that has a probability greater than 10% is included.

Oregon's duck mascot celebrates a win over Ohio State on Saturday

The Oregon Ducks crowd surf after the football team defeated Ohio State at Autzen Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. / Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

All teams with a 10% or better chance of making the College Football Playoff after Week 7 according to ESPN FPI odds.

26. UNLV: 11.2%
25. Tulane: 11.4%
24. James Madison: 13.5%
23. Missouri: 15.0%
22. Washington State: 16.8%
21. Pittsburgh: 18.6%
20. Ole Miss: 23.6%
19. Kansas State: 24.1%
18. Army: 24.6%
17. LSU: 26.4%
16. SMU: 28.2%
15. BYU: 32.7%
14. Texas A&M: 32.8%
13. Clemson: 44.6%
12. Tennessee: 46.2%
11. Boise State: 46.5%
10. Indiana: 47.3%
9. Iowa State: 53.2%
8. Notre Dame: 57.4%
7. Georgia: 68.4%
6. Alabama: 69.9%
5. Miami: 73.2%
4. Penn State: 75.2%
3. Ohio State: 81.0%
2. Oregon: 84.3%
1. Texas: 95.9%

Nick Shepkowski’s Quick Take:

Texas players celebrate a dominating victory over Oklahoma

Texas Longhorns wide receiver Silas Bolden (11) and Texas Longhorns defensive back Xavier Filsaime (21) celebrate a touchdown in the third quarter during the Red River rivalry football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the University of Oklahoma Longhorns the University of Texas at Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas, TX on Saturday, October 12, 2024. / Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I get annoyed when I turn on a show or game and see the ESPN FPI odds listed in the scroll at the bottom of the screen as each upcoming game is displayed. I don’t think this is perfect by any means. For example, the computer clearly doesn’t have a formula to explain Ole Miss not being able to pass consistently or have a sane play in an extra period.

However, the AP and Coaches polls mean literally nothing anymore. The College Football Playoff committee makes the rankings and does not take anything from the AP poll into account. I find this infinitely more interesting than the two very outdated weekly polls that start coming out before the season.

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